Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: Cabero J. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	beIN Sports


	Sportivo Ameliano		Danubio

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.35	3.1	3.1
	2.4	3.1	3
	2.46	3	3.28
	2.46	2.95	3.29
	2.25	3.1	3	Watch
	2.34	3.13	3.15	Watch
	2.28	3.1	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.41)	3.09 ↓ (3.25)	3.13 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Ameliano
39.6%

Draw
30.4%

Danubio
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

28.7%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

28.6%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Ameliano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Sportivo Ameliano - Danubio Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Sportivo Ameliano will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Danubio will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Rossi N. (G) 26. Gonzalez J. 3. Baez F. 4. Gutierrez T. 19. Paredes A. 36. Martinez L. 22. Romero O. 7. Samudio A. 29. Valdez I. 40. Contrera A. 9. Bareiro S.	1. Goicoechea M. (G) 4. Ancheta E. 20. Ferreira L. 14. Brazionis 2. Etchebarne S. 19. Romero S. 6. Sosa L. 16. Peralta M. 30. Fernandez S. 34. Lewis K. 33. Leyes G.
Substitutes
30. Alfonso F. 18. Anibal 31. Aquino M. 1. Cristoforo F. (G) 20. Ferreira Namandu C. D. 23. Franco F. 24. Martinich M. 2. Patino Martinez J. 21. Sarquis E. 17. Torales Richard 8. Torales S. 11. Vera F.	18. Bueno G. 9. Fernandez J. 3. Fracchia M. 23. Gonzalez M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 25. Montana A. 13. Novick H. 12. Rio J. (G) 11. Rossi N. 39. Sanseviero L. 17. Silvestre F. 8. Tizon C.
Coaches
Sarabia P.	Apud A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', Brazionis 🟨,
8', 0 - 1, Ancheta E. ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Valdez I. ⚽, Samudio A. (A),
41', 2 - 1, Gonzalez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Peralta M. ↓, Rossi N. ↑,
46', Brazionis ↓, Montana A. ↑,
63', Bareiro S. ↓, Torales Richard ↑,
63', Romero O. ↓, Torales S. ↑,
68', Leyes G. ↓, Novick H. ↑,
68', Romero S. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
74', Samudio A. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
83', Valdez I. ↓, Sarquis E. ↑,
83', Contrera A. ↓, Anibal ↑,
88', Vera F. 🟨,
90+3', Sosa L. ↓, Bueno G. ↑,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sportivo Ameliano won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	0:3 ✺
29.04.24	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.24	Rayo Zuliano - Sportivo Ameliano	0:4 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.04.24	Sportivo Ameliano - General Caballero JLM	2:0 ✺
14.04.24	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWWWL
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Danubio - Rampla Juniors	1:1 ✺
28.04.24	Miramar Misiones - Danubio	3:5 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.24	Danubio - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.04.24	Danubio - Cerro Largo	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Danubio - Sportivo Ameliano	0:0

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