Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 24 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV
Brazil	ESPN 4


	Danubio		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	4	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.2	2.1
	3.75	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.95	3.23	2.13
	3.91	3.23	2.06
	3.6	3.1	2
	3.71	3.28	2.04	Watch
	3.75	3.15	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.78 ↑ (3.43)	3.2 ↓ (3.23)	2.06 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Danubio
24.9%

Draw
29.4%

Athletico Paranaense
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

29%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

28.7%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	42.9%	42.9%

Danubio - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Danubio will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (G) 4. Ancheta E. 20. Ferreira L. 2. Etchebarne S. 3. Fracchia M. 19. Romero S. 14. Brazionis 7. Pintos I. 34. Lewis K. 8. Tizon C. 30. Fernandez S.	1. Bento (G) 22. Madson 4. Kaique Rocha 80. Alex Santana (C) 23. Felipinho 88. Christian 15. Gamarra M. 20. Julimar 10. Zapelli B. 14. Canobbio A. 9. Gonzalo Mastriani
Substitutes
27. Arguello M. 18. Bueno G. 9. Fernandez J. 23. Gonzalez M. 33. Leyes G. 15. Nunez R. 26. Piriz D. 12. Rio J. (G) 11. Rossi N. 39. Sanseviero L. 22. Saravia F. 17. Silvestre F.	11. Benitez R. 28. Cuello 7. Di Yorio L. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 6. Fernando 18. Jader 57. Joao Cruz 24. Leo Linck (G) 46. Marcos Maia 41. Mycael (G) 50. Renan Viana
Coaches
Apud A.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Madson ⚽, Zapelli B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Tizon C. ↓, Rossi N. ↑,
61', Julimar 🟨,
66', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Renan Viana ↑,
66', Zapelli B. ↓, Jader ↑,
68', Brazionis ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
76', Pintos I. ↓, Sanseviero L. ↑,
76', Fernandez S. ↓, Silvestre F. ↑,
78', Julimar ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
79', Canobbio A. ↓, Cuello ↑,
84', Fernandez J. 🟨,
90+3', Christian ↓, Marcos Maia ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Danubio is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Athletico PR is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Danubio could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Athletico PR have a series of home games.

Athletico PR will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.04.24	Danubio - Cerro Largo	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Danubio - Sportivo Ameliano	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.04.24	Danubio - Progreso	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.24	Rayo Zuliano - Danubio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLTTW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Internacional RS	1:0 ✺
17.04.24	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
14.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Rayo Zuliano	6:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
06.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWWW

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