Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Rissios Duran D. S. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Sportivo Luqueño		Atlético Grau

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.4
	2.35	3.2	3	Watch
	2.44	3.2	3.07
	2.41	3.22	3.09	Watch
	2.15	3	3.4	Watch
	2.33	3.2	3.23	Watch
	2.35	3.2	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (1.91)	3.18 ↓ (3.37)	3.16 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Luqueño
40.6%

Draw
29.6%

Atlético Grau
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

27.9%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

27.6%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Luqueño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sportivo Luqueño's form might have worsened.

Atlético Grau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Grau's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sportivo Luqueño, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Grau, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Sportivo Luqueño - Atlético Grau Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Sportivo Luqueño will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Aguilar A. (G) 22. Ocampos S. 3. Brizuela A. 6. Marchio J. 15. Maldonado S. 7. Pereira K. 13. Torres I. 8. Rodriguez W. 11. Vera E. 27. Baez J. 29. Santander F.	1. Alvarez P. (G) 15. Rostaing J. 27. Tapia R. 16. F. Rojas 14. Bolivar J. 25. Vilca R. 8. Soto D. 5. Guarderas R. 6. Rodas E. 9. Sandoval T. 11. Bandiera N.
Substitutes
23. Aguilar P. 33. Alborno R. 14. Benitez F. 18. Caceres R. 37. Comas L. 40. Espinola A. (G) 2. Ferreira R. 9. Gonzalez W. 31. Paredes Filippini J. 24. Parra A. 19. Perez M. 25. Ramos J.	26. Flores A. 12. Fuentes A. (G) 29. Garcia B. 22. Herrera Joel 24. Olivares C. 17. Reyes J. 21. Reynoso A. (G) 28. Solis A. 18. Trelles A. 20. Vasquez A. 30. Vasquez E.
Coaches
Morinigo G.	Comizzo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', Maldonado S. 🟨,
25', Santander F. ↓, Gonzalez W. ↑,
33', 0 - 1, Rostaing J. ⚽, Sandoval T. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Bolivar J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Bandiera N. ↓, Vasquez A. ↑,
65', Gonzalez W. 🟨,
67', Pereira K. ↓, Comas L. ↑,
73', Rodriguez W. 🟨,
76', Sandoval T. ↓, Olivares C. ↑,
76', Rodriguez W. ↓, Benitez F. ↑,
76', Brizuela A. ↓, Aguilar P. ↑,
76', Vera E. ↓, Caceres R. ↑,
84', Vilca R. ↓, Garcia B. ↑,
90+5', Aguilar P. 🟥,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Grau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Grau has had a series of home games.

Sportivo Luqueño is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sportivo Luqueño won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Luqueño
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.05.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Godoy Cruz	0:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.05.25	2 de Mayo - Sportivo Luqueño	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Sportivo Luqueño - General Caballero JLM	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Atlético Grau - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLTTT
- Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1
10.05.25	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Atlético Grau - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
02.05.25	Sport Huancayo - Atlético Grau	3:0 ✺
27.04.25	Atlético Grau - Sport Boys	3:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Atlético Grau - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Atlético Grau - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2

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