Match Info

National League South - Round 42

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday


	St Albans City		Dorking Wanderers

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.3	1.8
	3.7	3.55	1.9
	3.97	3.46	1.91
	4.16	3.23	1.93
	3.7	3.55	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.85 ↓ (5.64)	3.42 ↓ (4.17)	1.89 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St Albans City
24%

Draw
27%

Dorking Wanderers
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.4%

22.2%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.1%

21.8%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St Albans City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in St Albans City's performance.

Dorking Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dorking Wanderers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St Albans City than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St Albans City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dorking Wanderers than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dorking Wanderers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

St Albans City - Dorking Wanderers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+2', 0 - 1, Carter C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
86', 1 - 1, Longe-King D. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Dorking is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches St Albans won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:6 (average 1.3:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams St Albans won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1 (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St Albans City
English National League South
29.03.25	St Albans City - Farnborough	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	St Albans City - Hornchurch	1:1 ✺
18.03.25	St Albans City - Hampton & Richmond Borough	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Chesham United - St Albans City	1:0 ✺
10.03.25	Chelmsford City - St Albans City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WTWLL
- Dorking Wanderers
English National League South
29.03.25	Dorking Wanderers - Eastbourne Borough	3:1 ✺
22.03.25	Boreham Wood - Dorking Wanderers	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Dorking Wanderers - Torquay United	0:1 ✺
11.03.25	Maidstone United - Dorking Wanderers	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Dorking Wanderers - Chelmsford City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
26.08.24	Dorking Wanderers - St Albans City	2:1
30.04.22	St Albans City - Dorking Wanderers	1:0
21.08.21	Dorking Wanderers - St Albans City	3:2
17.08.19	St Albans City - Dorking Wanderers	1:1

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