Match Info

USA: MLS

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Location: CITYPARK (St. Louis, MO)

Referee: Lauziere P. (Can)


	St. Louis City		Chicago Fire

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.33	4.75	Watch
	1.66	4.1	4.4
	1.68	4.33	4.75	Watch
	1.7	4.27	4.9
	1.68	4.27	4.84
	1.65	4.2	4.4
	1.69	4.25	4.48	Watch
	1.67	4.1	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.97)	4.23 ↑ (3.51)	4.64 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Louis City
56.9%

Draw
22.5%

Chicago Fire
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

26.8%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

26.1%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Louis City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in St. Louis City's performance.

Chicago Fire has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Louis City than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St. Louis City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

St. Louis City - Chicago Fire Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Louis City will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burki R. (G) 14. Totland T. 26. Parker T. 22. Hiebert K. 13. Markanich A. 8. Durkin C. 7. Ostrak T. 21. Alm R. 19. Vassilev I. 12. Pompeu C. 9. Joao Klauss	34. Brady C. (G) 27. Arigoni A. 4. Teran C. 22. Pineda M. 15. Gutman A. 21. Herbers F. 23. Acosta K. 17. Gutierrez B. 10. Shaqiri X. (C) 8. Mueller C. 9. Cuypers H.
Substitutes
16. Adeniran S. 6. Blom N. 44. Dyhr N. 25. Jackson A. 85. Kijima H. 39. Lundt B. (G) 4. Nilsson J. 29. Thorisson N. 20. Watts A.	12. Barlow T. 5. Czichos R. 24. Dean J. 55. Glasgow O. 19. Koutsias G. 31. Navarro F. 16. Omsberg W. 18. Richey S. (G) 2. Souquet A.
Coaches
Carnell B.	Klopas F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Alm R. ⚽,
22', Herbers F. 🟨,
45+1', Alm R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Herbers F. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Cuypers H. ⚽, Gutman A. (A),
56', 2 - 1, Joao Klauss ⚽, Pompeu C. (A),
61', Shaqiri X. 🟨,
62', Arigoni A. ↓, Souquet A. ↑,
67', 3 - 1, Joao Klauss ⚽, Durkin C. (A),
72', Pineda M. ↓, Czichos R. ↑,
73', Mueller C. ↓, Barlow T. ↑,
73', Alm R. ↓, Adeniran S. ↑,
79', Joao Klauss ↓, Jackson A. ↑,
80', Pompeu C. ↓, Thorisson N. ↑,
80', Markanich A. ↓, Nilsson J. ↑,
82', Acosta K. ↓, Dean J. ↑,
88', Ostrak T. ↓, Kijima H. ↑,
90+1', Teran C. 🟨,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 13).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Chicago could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Chicago have a series of home games.

In this match St. Louis City is a favorite.

There will not play in St. Louis City: Blom N. (Injury) Lowen E. (Injury) Yaro J. (Injury)

There will not play in Chicago: Gasper C. (Injury) Haile-Selassie M. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches St. Louis City won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St. Louis City SC
MLS
04.05.24	Houston Dynamo - St. Louis City	0:0 ✺
20.04.24	Sporting Kansas City - St. Louis City	3:3 ✺
14.04.24	St. Louis City - Austin FC	1:0 ✺
06.04.24	St. Louis City - FC Dallas	0:0 ✺
30.03.24	Real Salt Lake - St. Louis City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTWTL
- Chicago Fire
MLS
04.05.24	Chicago Fire - New England Revolution	0:1 ✺
27.04.24	Chicago Fire - Atlanta United	0:0 ✺
20.04.24	Chicago Fire - Real Salt Lake	0:4 ✺
13.04.24	New York Red Bulls - Chicago Fire	0:0 ✺
06.04.24	Chicago Fire - Houston Dynamo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
13.05.23	Chicago Fire - St. Louis City	1:0
US Open Cup
09.05.23	Chicago Fire - St. Louis City	2:1

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