Match Info

Date: 29 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	Sportsnet
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Bundesliga, Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport Top event, Sport 1
Greece	Nova Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Sweden	Viaplay


	St. Pauli		Darmstadt

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.5	2.7	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.65	Watch
	2.6	3.55	2.55
	2.6	3.35	2.65
	2.63	3.54	2.73
	2.55	3.3	2.6	Watch
	2.52	3.54	2.62	Watch
	2.6	3.4	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↓ (2.73)	3.44 ↓ (3.51)	2.65 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
36.7%

Draw
27.6%

Darmstadt
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

26.5%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

26.1%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Darmstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Darmstadt than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	18.7%	56.2%

St. Pauli - Darmstadt Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 12 - 25%). Darmstadt will win (votes: 27 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Darmstadt: 42.3% – 70.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

St. Pauli has the most likely position - 9 (8.7%), has project points - 46, has currently - 14, has a small chance of relegated (6%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Darmstadt has the most likely position - 1 (31.54%), has project points - 62, has currently - 28, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of promoted (57%), has a chance of win league (32%).

This event has quality 39, importance 46, match rating 43. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 1.

St. Pauli is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Darmstadt in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

St. Pauli could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 12 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 9-23.

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
22.10.22	Arminia Bielefeld - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
19.10.22	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ET ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
14.10.22	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	3:0 ✺
08.10.22	Eintracht Braunschweig - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
01.10.22	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWLT
- SV Darmstadt 98
German 2 Bundesliga
21.10.22	Darmstadt - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
18.10.22	Darmstadt - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
15.10.22	Karlsruher - Darmstadt	1:2 ✺
08.10.22	Darmstadt - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:0 ✺
30.09.22	Paderborn - Darmstadt	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
23.04.22	St. Pauli - Darmstadt	1:2
20.11.21	Darmstadt - St. Pauli	4:0
20.02.21	St. Pauli - Darmstadt	3:2
24.10.20	Darmstadt - St. Pauli	2:2
23.05.20	Darmstadt - St. Pauli	4:0
19.10.19	St. Pauli - Darmstadt	0:1
29.01.19	Darmstadt - St. Pauli	2:1

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