Match Info

Date: 19 September 2021, Sunday


	St. Pauli		Ingolstadt

	1	X	2
	1.61	4.2	5	Watch
	1.57	4.4	5.5	Watch
	1.58	4.25	5.1
	1.62	4	5
	1.65	4.26	5.22
	1.6	3.9	5
	1.62	4.25	5.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.79)	4.18 ↑ (3.77)	5.13 ↑ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
58.9%

Draw
22.6%

Ingolstadt
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

24.9%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.3%

20%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in St. Pauli's performance.

Ingolstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. Pauli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

St. Pauli - Ingolstadt Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Pauli will win (26 of 30 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.51% – 98.83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga).

St. Pauli has the most likely position - 9 (7.05%), has project points - 48, has currently - 10, has a small chance of relegated (7%), has a small chance of promoted (10%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Ingolstadt has the most likely position - 18 (17.95%), has project points - 35, has currently - 4, has a chance of relegated (40%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-9.

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
11.09.21	Hannover - St. Pauli	1:0 ✺
29.08.21	St. Pauli - Jahn Regensburg	2:0 ✺
21.08.21	Paderborn - St. Pauli	3:1 ✺
13.08.21	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
07.08.21	Magdeburg - St. Pauli	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWLWW
- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 2 Bundesliga
11.09.21	Ingolstadt - Werder Bremen	0:3 ✺
27.08.21	Sandhausen - Ingolstadt	0:2 ✺
22.08.21	Ingolstadt - Nürnberg	0:0 ✺
15.08.21	Darmstadt - Ingolstadt	6:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
09.08.21	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
07.07.19	Ingolstadt - St. Pauli	0:3
German 2 Bundesliga
23.02.19	St. Pauli - Ingolstadt	1:0
21.09.18	Ingolstadt - St. Pauli	0:1
17.02.18	Ingolstadt - St. Pauli	0:1
16.09.17	St. Pauli - Ingolstadt	0:4
17.12.14	Ingolstadt - St. Pauli	2:1
02.08.14	St. Pauli - Ingolstadt	1:1

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