Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 19

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Startimes Sports Arena, ZAP
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World	Onefootball


	Bayer Leverkusen		Werder Bremen

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.33	5.5	Watch
	1.61	4.33	4.8
	1.58	4.45	4.95	Watch
	1.58	4.55	5.6
	1.58	4.63	5.48	Watch
	1.53	4.2	5
	1.6	4.41	5.6	Watch
	1.57	4.33	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.55)	4.4 ↓ (4.65)	5.3 ↑ (5.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
60.4%

Draw
21.6%

Werder Bremen
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

20.4%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

20%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Werder Bremen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	8.6%	5.7%

Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1.25 - Bayer (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Werder (4.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (30 of 35 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.12% – 97.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 15 - 75%). Werder (votes: 2 - 10%). Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Blaswich J. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 5. Bade L. 21. Lucas 30. Maza I. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 7. Hofmann J. 19. Poku E. 14. Schick P.	30. Backhaus M. (G) 5. Pieper A. 32. Friedl M. (C) 31. Coulibaly K. 3. Sugawara Y. 14. Lynen S. 23. Schmidt I. 20. Schmid R. 6. Stage J. 11. Njinmah J. 17. Grull M.
Substitutes
13. Arthur 44. Belocian J. 6. Fernandez E. 35. Kofane C. 36. Lomb N. (G) 25. Palacios E. 16. Tape A. 11. Terrier M. 10. Tillman M.	24. Covic P. 2. Deman O. 21. Hansen-Aaroen I. 13. Hein K. (G) 22. Malatini J. 19. Milosevic J. 18. Puertas C. 33. Schmetgens M. 9. Topp K.
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Steffen H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Pieper A. ↓, Malatini J. ↑,
37', 1 - 0, Lucas ⚽, Maza I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Schmidt I. ↓, Deman O. ↑,
57', Poku E. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
57', Lucas ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
60', Grull M. ↓, Milosevic J. ↑,
72', Maza I. ↓, Arthur ↑,
72', Garcia A. ↓, Palacios E. ↑,
78', Hofmann J. 🟨,
78', Friedl M. 🟨,
79', Sugawara Y. ↓, Topp K. ↑,
87', Bade L. 🟨,
88', Malatini J. 🟨,
90+6', Deman O. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 2.

Bayer has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Werder is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Werder may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayer is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (Ankle Injury) Flekken M. (Injury) Tapsoba E. (Rest) Tella N. (Injury)

There will not play in Werder: Agu F. (Ankle Injury) Boniface V. (Knee Injury) Stark N. (Lacking Match Fitness) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Werder: Bittencourt L. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 40:31. (average 2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 1.6:1.7).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.01% Werder Bremen: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8:8	0	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
17.01.26	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart	1:4 ✺
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
13.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Köln	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLLWW
- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
16.01.26	Werder Bremen - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:3 ✺
13.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.01.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Augsburg - Werder Bremen	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Werder Bremen - Stuttgart	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
30.08.25	Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3
08.03.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen	0:2
26.10.24	Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
14.04.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen	5:0
25.11.23	Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3
12.03.23	Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
17.09.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen	1:1

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