Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 27 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Exner F. (Ger)


	St. Pauli		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.6	1.75	Watch
	4.4	3.5	1.83
	4.7	3.7	1.75	Watch
	4.91	3.7	1.81
	4.69	3.68	1.78	Watch
	4.4	3.4	1.75
	5.03	3.74	1.82	Watch
	5	3.6	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.74 ↑ (3.83)	3.62 ↓ (3.75)	1.78 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
20.1%

Draw
26.4%

RB Leipzig
53.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

25.4%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

26.5%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.3%	10%	85.7%

St. Pauli - RB Leipzig Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - St. Pauli (3.37) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - RB Leipzig (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - RB Leipzig (3.15) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

EH +1 - RB Leipzig (1.21) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - St. Pauli (2.03) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (58 of 67 users predict this - 86.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.41% – 94.73%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (35 of 41 users predict this - 85.37%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 53 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 7 - 13.2%). RB Leipzig (votes: 43 - 81.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 5.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 15. Ando T. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 6. Sands J. 8. Smith E. (C) 2. Saliakas M. 16. Fujita J. 10. Sinani D. 26. Jones R.J.	1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 5. Bitshiabu E. 22. Raum D. (C) 24. Schlager X. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 7. Irvine J. 19. Kaars M. 23. Oppie L. 28. Pereira Lage M. 20. Rasmussen M. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	6. Banzuzi E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 16. Klostermann L. 33. Maksimovic A. 19. Nedeljkovic K. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)
Coaches
Blessin A.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
64', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
66', 0 - 1, Diomande Y. ⚽,
67', Jones R.J. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
76', Sinani D. ↓, Pereira Lage M. ↑,
76', Sands J. ↓, Irvine J. ↑,
76', Fujita J. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
85', Nusa A. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
85', Baumgartner C. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
88', Saliakas M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Kaars M. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Diomande Y. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,

Preview

Postponed due to bad weather.

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2.

St. Pauli is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

RB Leipzig has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

RB Leipzig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, RB Leipzig is the team to beat.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Bakayoko J. (Muscle Injury) Banzuzi E. (Muscle Injury) Diomande Y. (International duty) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nusa A. (Ankle Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 0.7:0).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6

Last Results with these Odds

RB Leipzig - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 49.8%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
23.01.26	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli	3:2 ✺
14.01.26	Wolfsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.01.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLLTT
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Heidenheim - RB Leipzig	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	1:5 ✺
14.01.26	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
12.12.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
09.02.25	RB Leipzig - St. Pauli	2:0
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	RB Leipzig - St. Pauli	4:2
German Bundesliga
22.09.24	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	0:0
German 2 Bundesliga
12.02.16	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:0
23.08.15	RB Leipzig - St. Pauli	0:1
03.05.15	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:0
23.11.14	RB Leipzig - St. Pauli	4:1

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