Match Info

Division 1 - Round 8

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Polonia, TVP Sport app


	Stal Mielec		Ruch Chorzów

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.2	2.45	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.25
	2.78	3.3	2.4	Watch
	2.83	3.5	2.52
	2.98	3.21	2.36	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.3
	2.68	3.38	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.68)	3.31 ↑ (3.25)	2.38 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
33.2%

Draw
27.9%

Ruch Chorzów
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

28.6%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

27.6%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Ruch Chorzów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ruch Chorzów than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Ruch Chorzów will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ruch Chorzów (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruch Chorzów (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matys M. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. 44. Puerto I. 15. Senger M. 32. Gerbowski F. 6. Pisek J. 23. Sommerfeld K. 27. Diez A. 10. Domanski M. (C) 9. Losada M. 90. Kruszelnicki P.	82. Bielecki J. (G) 15. Konczkowski M. 28. Lesniak-Paduch N. 24. Komor A. 4. Preisler D. 27. Szwoch M. 20. Szymanski S. (C) 18. Nagamatsu S. 21. Szwedzik P. 9. Bala T. 77. Ceglarz P.
Substitutes
33. Bukowski A. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 3. Kowalik P. 21. Kwiatkowski P. 17. Mazurek D. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 11. Odolak K. 77. Sadlocha K.	38. Karasinski S. . Kolar M. 29. Lachendro F. 17. Lukic A. 30. Sobeczko J. 1. Szymanski J. (G) 6. Szyminski P. 25. Ventura D. 22. Zurawski M.
Coaches
Djurdjevic I.	Fornalik W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Pisek J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Szwoch M. ↓, Ventura D. ↑,
61', Bala T. ↓, Kolar M. ↑,
69', Losada M. 🟨,
69', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Sadlocha K. ↑,
72', Losada M. ↓, Odolak K. ↑,
76', Nagamatsu S. ↓, Sobeczko J. ↑,
76', Szwedzik P. ↓, Zurawski M. ↑,
80', Domanski M. ↓, Niedzwiedz N. ↑,
80', Puerto I. ↓, Kwiatkowski P. ↑,
82', Preisler D. ↓, Karasinski S. ↑,
84', 2 - 0, Odolak K. ⚽, Sadlocha K. (A),
87', 2 - 1, Kolar M. ⚽,
89', Gerbowski F. 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 2, Karasinski S. ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 12 and 14)

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Stal Mielec won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
25.08.25	GKS Tychy - Stal Mielec	0:1 ✺
21.08.25	Stal Mielec - Odra Opole	2:1 ✺
15.08.25	ŁKS Łódź - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
09.08.25	Stal Mielec - Górnik Łęczna	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	Stal Mielec - Polonia Warsaw	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLTL
- Ruch Chorzów
Polish Division 1
24.08.25	Ruch Chorzów - Polonia Bytom	1:1 ✺
20.08.25	Ruch Chorzów - Stal Rzeszów	4:0 ✺
15.08.25	Polonia Warsaw - Ruch Chorzów	0:0 ✺
08.08.25	Ruch Chorzów - Pogoń Siedlce	0:2 ✺
03.08.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Ruch Chorzów	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
10.03.24	Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów	3:1
01.09.23	Ruch Chorzów - Stal Mielec	1:1
Polish Division 1
17.11.17	Ruch Chorzów - Stal Mielec	1:2
28.07.17	Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów	1:0

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