Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: Maurice Dufrasnestadion (Liège)

Referee: Laforge N. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza


	Standard Liège		KV Mechelen

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3.3	Watch
	2.37	3.4	2.9
	2.2	3.25	3.3
	2.27	3.38	3.46
	2.70	2.47	3.47	Watch
	2.21	3.39	3.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.5)	3.2 ↓ (3.3)	3.3 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Standard Liège
41.2%

Draw
29.9%

KV Mechelen
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

28.4%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29.8%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Standard Liège has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

KV Mechelen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and KV Mechelen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Standard Liège than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KV Mechelen than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	25%	45%

Standard Liège - KV Mechelen Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Standard will win (votes: 6 - 30%). Mechelen will win (votes: 9 - 45%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mechelen: 23.2% – 66.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Mechelen (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH 0 - Mechelen (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Mechelen (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Epolo M. (G) 29. Dierckx D. 23. Ilaimaharitra M. 24. Homawoo J. 94. Nielsen C. 13. Fossey M. 27. El Hankouri M. 7. Mohr T. 11. Abid A. 9. Henry T. 17. Said R.	13. Miras N. (G) 2. Halhal R. 8. Konate M. 4. Diouf G. 7. Koudou T. 20. Lauberbach L. 6. Hammar F. 23. Zekri M. 11. Bafdili B. 17. Servais M. 19. Mrabti K.
Substitutes
22. Calut A. 10. Eckert Ayensa D. 20. Karamoko I. 14. Kuavita L. 18. Lawrence H. 8. Mehssatou Sepulveda N. 19. Mitongo R. 21. Pirard L. (G) 6. Sahabo H.	38. Antonio B. 1. De Wolf O. (G) 22. Golic L. 3. Marsa J. 14. Raman B. 18. Struyf I. 5. Teague R. 9. van Brederode M. 32. WIllockx A. (G)
Coaches
Euvrard V.	Vanderbiest F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Homawoo J. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
44', Bafdili B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', El Hankouri M. ↓, Eckert Ayensa D. ↑,
58', Konate M. 🟨,
58', 1 - 0, Ilaimaharitra M. (Pen),
60', Bafdili B. ↓, Raman B. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Mrabti K. ⚽,
76', Halhal R. ↓, Antonio B. ↑,
76', Mrabti K. ↓, van Brederode M. ↑,
84', Said R. ↓, Mehssatou Sepulveda N. ↑,
84', Ilaimaharitra M. ↓, Sahabo H. ↑,
87', Lauberbach L. ↓, Teague R. ↑,
90+2', Sahabo H. 🟨,
90+3', Henry T. 🟨,
90+5', Karamoko I. 🟨,
90+7', Diouf G. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Standard won 0.

Standard is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mechelen is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Standard: Bates D. (Knee Injury) Eckert Ayensa D. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Mechelen: Kiki (Surgery) Marsa J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Standard won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:29. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Standard won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.5:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Standard Liège
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
31.08.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Standard Liège	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Standard Liège - Cercle Brugge	0:3 ✺
16.08.25	Saint-Gilloise - Standard Liège	3:0 ✺
10.08.25	Standard Liège - Genk	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Standard Liège - Dender EH	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLLWT
- KV Mechelen
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
30.08.25	KV Mechelen - RAAL La Louvière	3:2 ✺
24.08.25	Royal Antwerp - KV Mechelen	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	KV Mechelen - Gent	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Westerlo - KV Mechelen	0:1 ✺
01.08.25	KV Mechelen - Club Brugge	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
10.05.25	KV Mechelen - Standard Liège	0:0
29.03.25	Standard Liège - KV Mechelen	2:2
26.12.24	KV Mechelen - Standard Liège	0:0
09.08.24	Standard Liège - KV Mechelen	0:0
25.05.24	KV Mechelen - Standard Liège	3:2
23.04.24	Standard Liège - KV Mechelen	0:0
20.12.23	KV Mechelen - Standard Liège	3:0

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