Match Info

OBOS-ligaen - Round 12

Date: 21 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Sparebanken Sør Arena (Kristiansand)

Referee: Bodding A. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1


	Start		Stabæk

	1	X	2
	1.83	4.1	3.4	Watch
	1.98	3.7	3.1
				Watch
	1.95	4.2	3.41
				Watch
	2.05	3.5	3
	1.96	4.05	3.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.19)	3.91 ↑ (3.71)	3.24 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Start
47.6%

Draw
23.8%

Stabæk
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

25.2%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

24.7%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Start has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Stabæk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Start than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stabæk than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	5.9%	11.8%

Start - Stabæk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Start (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Stabæk (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Stabæk (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Stabæk (2.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Start will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Start (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Stabæk (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Larsen J. (G) 4. Hansen S. 5. Jebali O. 3. Ujkani A. 2. Palerud F. 18. Ugland M. 10. Mvoue S. 11. Schulze E. (C) 16. Strannegard T. 20. Lorentzen H. 8. Grundetjern M.	12. Gunnerod L. (G) 19. Riise F. 14. Nielsen M. 4. Naess N. (C) 20. Andresen A. 28. Isaksen J. 27. Danso E. 21. Onsrud K. 17. Olderheim S. 9. Diabate B. 11. Spiten-Nysaeter O.
Substitutes
25. Benjamin T. 19. Dashaev D. 30. Gausdal L. 29. Gono E. 38. Jorgensen S. 22. Nilsen A. E. 21. Sjokvist S. 24. Strand-Kolbjornsen S. (G) 27. Sunday G.	30. Ellegaard F. 10. Geelmuyden H. 24. Kostadinov K. 8. Lankhof-Dahlby M. 6. Matic A. 22. Opseth K. 2. Pedersen K. 1. Rossbach S. (G) 5. Skjelvik J.
Coaches
Karadas A.	Walemark J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Grundetjern M. ⚽, Lorentzen H. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Isaksen J. ⚽, Naess N. (A),
45', Palerud F. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
51', 2 - 1, Lorentzen H. ⚽, Strannegard T. (A),
58', 3 - 1, Grundetjern M. ⚽, Ugland M. (A),
61', Onsrud K. ↓, Matic A. ↑,
61', Olderheim S. ↓, Geelmuyden H. ↑,
64', Spiten-Nysaeter O. 🟨,
64', Diabate B. 🟨,
69', 4 - 1, Ugland M. (Pen),
70', Spiten-Nysaeter O. ↓, Ellegaard F. ↑,
70', Andresen A. ↓, Skjelvik J. ↑,
71', 5 - 1, Grundetjern M. ⚽,
76', Schulze E. ↓, Gausdal L. ↑,
76', Lorentzen H. ↓, Gono E. ↑,
79', Naess N. 🟥,
81', Isaksen J. ↓, Pedersen K. ↑,
85', Ugland M. ↓, Sjokvist S. ↑,
90', Mvoue S. ↓, Jorgensen S. ↑,
90+2', Danso E. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Eliteserien and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Start won 2.

Start is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Stabæk has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Start won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:34. (average 1.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Start won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.8:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IK Start
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
18.06.25	Ranheim - Start	0:1 ✺
15.06.25	Start - Lyn	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	Moss - Start	0:3 ✺
24.05.25	Aalesunds - Start	1:1 ✺
16.05.25	Start - Egersund	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WTWTW
- Stabæk Fotball
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
18.06.25	Stabæk - Egersund	1:3 ✺
15.06.25	Aalesunds - Stabæk	2:2 ✺
31.05.25	Stabæk - Kongsvinger	2:2 ✺
24.05.25	Raufoss - Stabæk	1:0 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
20.05.25	Stabæk - Mjøndalen	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Adeccoligaen
21.09.24	Stabæk - Start	2:3
16.06.24	Start - Stabæk	4:3
Club Friendly
01.03.24	Stabæk - Start	2:1
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
21.08.22	Stabæk - Start	5:0
19.06.22	Start - Stabæk	0:0
Norwegian Eliteserien
27.09.20	Stabæk - Start	2:0
26.07.20	Start - Stabæk	0:0

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