Match Info

Championship - Round 34

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Linington J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1, SupeSport ESPN 2
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1, SupeSport ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2, SupeSport ESPN
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	Exxen
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Stoke City		Oxford United

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.5	4	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.4
	1.9	3.54	4.12	Watch
	1.97	3.54	4.22
	1.83	3.6	4.37	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4
	1.91	3.61	4.34	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.78)	3.51 ↓ (3.55)	4.24 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
50.7%

Draw
27%

Oxford United
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

26.6%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

24.8%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76%	20%	4%

Stoke City - Oxford United Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 19 - 76%). Oxford will win (votes: 1 - 4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 59.3% – 92.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Oxford (4.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Oxford (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stoke City will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 3 - 60%). Oxford (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Simkin T. (G) 40. Talovierov M. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 17. Bocat E. 42. Manhoef M. 15. N'Zonzi S. 21. Rak-Sakyi J. 19. Rigo T. 7. Thomas S. 29. Cisse L.	1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 37. Makosso C. 3. Brown C. 26. Currie J. 4. Vaulks W. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 17. Mills S. 44. Peart-Harris M. 32. Jeon Jin-Woo 27. Lankshear W.
Substitutes
3. Agina S. 10. Bae J. 34. Fielding F. (G) 23. Gibson B. 59. Kelly G. 54. Otegbayo R. 4. Pearson B. 12. Seko T. 49. Smit M.	10. Emakhu A. 9. Harris M. 6. Helik M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 5. Konak Y. E. 16. Prelec N. 12. Roosken R. 24. ter Avest H. 11. ter Haar Romeny O.
Coaches
Robins M.	Bloomfield M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', Talovierov M. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Cisse L. ⚽, Manhoef M. (A),
44', 1 - 1, Brown C. ⚽, Mills S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jeon Jin-Woo ↓, Emakhu A. ↑,
53', Wilmot B. 🟨,
57', 2 - 1, Rak-Sakyi J. ⚽, Thomas S. (A),
66', Lankshear W. ↓, Prelec N. ↑,
66', Mills S. ↓, ter Haar Romeny O. ↑,
66', Brannagan C. ↓, Konak Y. E. ↑,
70', Rak-Sakyi J. ↓, Bae J. ↑,
78', Rigo T. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
83', Peart-Harris M. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
89', Vaulks W. 🟨,
90+4', Cisse L. ↓, Smit M. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 16 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Stoke may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Stoke is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Stoke: Ampah A. (Injury) Baker L. (Inactive) Bazunu G. (Thigh Injury) Bozenik R. (Shoulder Injury) Gallagher S. (Hamstring Injury) Johansson V. (Shoulder Injury) Lawal B. (Inactive) Mubama D. (Ankle Injury) Tchamadeu J. (Injury)

There will not play in Oxford: Goodrham T. (Injury) Leigh G. (Inactive) ter Avest H. (Injury)

There are questionable in Oxford: De Keersmaecker B. (Inactive) McDonnell J. (Injury) Prelec N. (Groin Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Stoke won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Stoke	10	5	1	4	17:16	1	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English League Championship
21.02.26	Stoke City - Leicester City	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
15.02.26	Stoke City - Fulham	1:2 ✺
English League Championship
11.02.26	Charlton Athletic - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	West Bromwich Albion - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Stoke City - Southampton	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLLTL
- Oxford United
English League Championship
21.02.26	Middlesbrough - Oxford United	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
15.02.26	Oxford United - Sunderland	0:1 ✺
English League Championship
10.02.26	Oxford United - Norwich City	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Coventry City - Oxford United	0:0 ✺
03.02.26	Sheffield United - Oxford United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.11.25	Oxford United - Stoke City	0:3
25.01.25	Stoke City - Oxford United	0:0
14.09.24	Oxford United - Stoke City	1:0

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