Match Info

Championship - Round 33

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	TV2 Play
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+


	Stoke City		Leicester City

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.6
	2.38	3.27	3.07	Watch
	2.4	3.4	3.1
	2.33	3.38	3.05	Watch
	2.3	3	3.1
	2.45	3.29	3.14	Watch
	2.16	3.4	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.1)	3.28 ↓ (3.56)	3.21 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
41.4%

Draw
29%

Leicester City
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

26.5%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

24.7%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Leicester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leicester City than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	23.5%	5.9%

Stoke City - Leicester City Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Leicester will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Leicester (2.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 2 - 50%). Leicester (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Simkin T. (G) 3. Cresswell A. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 17. Bocat E. 12. Seko T. 4. Pearson B. 29. Cisse L. 10. Bae J. 7. Thomas S. 49. Smit M.	31. Begovic A. (G) 21. Pereira R. (C) 5. Okoli C. 4. Nelson B. 16. Kristiansen V. 8. Winks H. 22. Skipp O. 28. Monga J. 29. Mukasa D. 10. Mavididi S. 20. Daka P.
Substitutes
34. Fielding F. (G) 23. Gibson B. 59. Kelly G. 42. Manhoef M. 15. N'Zonzi S. 60. Osei Kyremeh J. 54. Otegbayo R. 21. Rak-Sakyi J. 40. Talovierov M.	56. Aluko O. 18. Aribo J. 62. Gray K. 27. Marcal W. 25. Page L. 12. Richards D. 1. Stolarczyk J. (G) 33. Thomas L. 39. Thomas S.
Coaches
Robins M.	Rowett G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Wilmot B. ⚽, Cresswell A. (A),
39', Kristiansen V. ↓, Thomas L. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', Pearson B. 🟨,
52', 1 - 1, Mukasa D. ⚽, Monga J. (A),
54', Pearson B. ↓, N'Zonzi S. ↑,
63', Monga J. ↓, Aribo J. ↑,
70', Thomas L. 🟨,
70', Thomas S. 🟨,
71', Smit M. ↓, Manhoef M. ↑,
71', Bocat E. ↓, Gibson B. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Winks H. ⚽, Mukasa D. (A),
79', Bae J. ↓, Rak-Sakyi J. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Wilmot B. ⚽, Cisse L. (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 0.

Stoke is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Leicester has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Stoke will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Stoke: Ampah A. (Inactive) Baker L. (Inactive) Bazunu G. (Thigh Injury) Bozenik R. (Shoulder Injury) Gallagher S. (Hamstring Injury) Johansson V. (Shoulder Injury) Mubama D. (Ankle Injury) Tchamadeu J. (Injury)

There will not play in Leicester: Aribo J. (Inactive) Choudhury H. (Knee Injury) James J. (Injury) Ramsey A. (Injury) Souttar H. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Vestergaard J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Leicester: Ayew J. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 12:29. (average 0.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:19. (average 1.1:2.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15:13	2	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English FA Cup
15.02.26	Stoke City - Fulham	1:2 ✺
English League Championship
11.02.26	Charlton Athletic - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	West Bromwich Albion - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Stoke City - Southampton	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Birmingham City - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLTLT
- Leicester City
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Southampton - Leicester City	2:1 ET ✺
English League Championship
10.02.26	Leicester City - Southampton	3:4 ✺
07.02.26	Birmingham City - Leicester City	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Leicester City - Charlton Athletic	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Leicester City - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
22.11.25	Leicester City - Stoke City	2:1
03.02.24	Stoke City - Leicester City	0:5
07.10.23	Leicester City - Stoke City	2:0
English FA Cup
09.01.21	Stoke City - Leicester City	0:4
Club Friendly
27.07.19	Stoke City - Leicester City	1:2
English Premier League
24.02.18	Leicester City - Stoke City	1:1
04.11.17	Stoke City - Leicester City	2:2

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