Match Info

FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Smith J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Stoke City		Fulham

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.9	1.61
	4.95	4.15	1.65
	5.19	4.05	1.67
	4.81	3.96	1.7	Watch
	4.6	3.6	1.67
	5.2	4.06	1.69	Watch
	4.75	4	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.89 ↑ (4.41)	3.96 ↑ (3.71)	1.67 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
19.4%

Draw
23.9%

Fulham
56.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

25.2%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.8%

24.8%

54.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Fulham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fulham than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19%	14.3%	66.7%

Stoke City - Fulham Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 4 - 19%). Fulham will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fulham: 46.5% – 86.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fulham will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Simkin T. (G) 26. Phillips A. 40. Talovierov M. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 17. Bocat E. 12. Seko T. 19. Rigo T. 7. Thomas S. 10. Bae J. 29. Cisse L. 49. Smit M.	23. Lecomte B. (G) 21. Castagne T. 31. Diop I. 15. Cuenca J. 33. Robinson A. 6. Reed H. (C) 17. Iwobi A. 14. Bobb O. 24. King J. 22. Kevin 9. Rodrigo Muniz
Substitutes
3. Cresswell A. 55. Curley R. 34. Fielding F. (G) 23. Gibson B. 42. Manhoef M. 15. N'Zonzi S. 54. Otegbayo R. 4. Pearson B. 21. Rak-Sakyi J.	5. Andersen J. 3. Bassey C. 16. Berge S. 7. Jimenez R. 1. Leno B. (G) 30. Sessegnon R. 32. Smith Rowe E. 2. Tete K. 8. Wilson H.
Coaches
Robins M.	Silva M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Bae J. ⚽, Bocat E. (A),
45+1', Castagne T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', 1 - 1, Kevin ⚽,
74', Bae J. 🟨,
74', Diop I. 🟨,
77', King J. ↓, Smith Rowe E. ↑,
77', Rodrigo Muniz ↓, Jimenez R. ↑,
78', Rigo T. ↓, Pearson B. ↑,
78', Smit M. ↓, Rak-Sakyi J. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Reed H. ⚽,
86', Bobb O. ↓, Wilson H. ↑,
89', Bocat E. ↓, Cresswell A. ↑,
89', Bae J. ↓, Manhoef M. ↑,
89', Seko T. ↓, N'Zonzi S. ↑,
90', Reed H. ↓, Berge S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 2.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Stoke may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fulham is considered a favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Fulham: 1.6%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English League Championship
11.02.26	Charlton Athletic - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	West Bromwich Albion - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Stoke City - Southampton	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Birmingham City - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Stoke City - Middlesbrough	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTLTL
- Fulham FC
English Premier League
11.02.26	Manchester City - Fulham	3:0 ✺
07.02.26	Fulham - Everton	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Manchester United - Fulham	3:2 ✺
24.01.26	Fulham - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Leeds United - Fulham	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
22.01.22	Stoke City - Fulham	2:3
28.08.21	Fulham - Stoke City	3:0
29.12.19	Fulham - Stoke City	1:0
19.10.19	Stoke City - Fulham	2:0
English League Cup
22.09.15	Fulham - Stoke City	0:1
English Premier League
03.05.14	Stoke City - Fulham	4:1
05.10.13	Fulham - Stoke City	1:0

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