Match Info

FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Supersport Action
Argentina	11:00	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	01:00	Stan Sport
Austria	15:00	DAZN
Brazil	11:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	16:00	Nova Sport
China	22:00	Migu
Cyprus	16:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	15:00	Viaplay
Finland	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	15:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
Germany	15:00	DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	22:00	M Plus Live
Hungary	15:00	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	14:00	Viaplay
India	19:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
Indonesia	21:00	Vidio
Israel	16:00	Sport 2
Italy	15:00	DAZN Italia, Discovery+
Japan	23:00	U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	20:00	Sport+
Kenya	17:00	Gotv
Kosovo	15:00	Arena Premium 4
Malaysia	22:00	SKY NET Sports 2
Maldives	19:00	Medianet
Malta	15:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	08:00	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Mongolia	22:00	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	15:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	15:00	SuperSport Action
Norway	15:00	Viaplay
Pakistan	19:00	Tapmad
Peru	09:00	Disney+
Poland	15:00	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app
Romania	16:00	Voyo
Serbia	15:00	Arena Premium 4
South Africa	16:00	SuperSport Variety 3
South Korea	23:00	Coupang Play
Sweden	15:00	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	15:00	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	16:00	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
United Kingdom	14:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 5
Uruguay	11:00	Disney+
Usa	09:00	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	10:00	Disney+
Vietnam	21:00	FPT Play


	Oxford United		Sunderland

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.9	1.56
	5.9	3.95	1.58
	5.93	4.01	1.61
	6.48	4.19	1.53	Watch
	5	3.6	1.6
	5.97	4.02	1.63	Watch
	6.33	4	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.87 ↑ (4.27)	3.95 ↑ (3.75)	1.58 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
16.1%

Draw
24%

Sunderland
59.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.9%

25%

53.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1%

24%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oxford United's form might have worsened.

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sunderland's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4%	16%	80%

Oxford United - Sunderland Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Sunderland (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sunderland will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.32% – 95.68%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sunderland will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Sunderland (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Ingram M. (G) 15. Spencer B. 37. Makosso C. 3. Brown C. 26. Currie J. 4. Vaulks W. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 17. Mills S. 33. Donley J. 32. Jeon Jin-Woo 27. Lankshear W.	22. Roefs R. (G) 32. Hume T. 20. Mukiele N. 13. O'Nien L. (C) 3. Cirkin D. 6. Geertruida L. 19. Diarra H. 7. Talbi C. 28. Le Fee E. 14. Mundle R. 18. Isidor W.
Substitutes
1. Cumming J. (G) 10. Emakhu A. 9. Harris M. 5. Konak Y. E. 2. Long S. 38. McDonnell J. 7. Placheta P. 12. Roosken R. 11. ter Haar Romeny O.	10. Angulo N. 37. Bi J. T. 9. Brobbey B. 31. Ellborg M. (G) 51. Jones J. 12. Mayenda E. 11. Rigg C. 27. Sadiki N. 53. Whittaker J.
Coaches
Bloomfield M.	Le Bris R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Diarra H. (Penalty Awarded),
33', Le Fee E. 🟨,
36', Hume T. 🟨,
40', Vaulks W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Isidor W. 🟨,
62', Brannagan C. 🟨,
64', Isidor W. ↓, Mayenda E. ↑,
64', Diarra H. ↓, Sadiki N. ↑,
65', Brannagan C. ↓, McDonnell J. ↑,
65', Jeon Jin-Woo ↓, Emakhu A. ↑,
65', Donley J. ↓, ter Haar Romeny O. ↑,
68', O'Nien L. 🟨,
75', Bloomfield M. 🟨,
81', Talbi C. ↓, Bi J. T. ↑,
82', Currie J. ↓, Roosken R. ↑,
82', Mills S. ↓, Placheta P. ↑,
90+3', Sadiki N. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1.

Oxford has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Sunderland has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Sunderland is the team to beat.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Oxford won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1:1.2).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Sunderland: 1.07% Oxford Utd: 0.35%

Last Results with these Odds

Oxford United - the odds 4.27 are the expected chance of winning is 21.94%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Championship
10.02.26	Oxford United - Norwich City	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Coventry City - Oxford United	0:0 ✺
03.02.26	Sheffield United - Oxford United	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Oxford United - Birmingham City	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Leicester City - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LTLLW
- Sunderland AFC
English Premier League
11.02.26	Sunderland - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Arsenal - Sunderland	3:0 ✺
02.02.26	Sunderland - Burnley	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	West Ham United - Sunderland	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Sunderland - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
26.04.25	Oxford United - Sunderland	2:0
26.10.24	Sunderland - Oxford United	2:0
English League One
09.04.22	Oxford United - Sunderland	1:2
04.12.21	Sunderland - Oxford United	1:1
02.04.21	Sunderland - Oxford United	3:1
19.09.20	Oxford United - Sunderland	0:2
15.02.20	Oxford United - Sunderland	0:1

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