Match Info

FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN
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China	Migu
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Denmark	Viaplay
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France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
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Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, Discovery+
Japan	U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Malaysia	SKY NET Sports 2
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport Action
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 5
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Oxford United		Sunderland

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.9	1.56
	5.9	3.95	1.58
	5.93	4.01	1.61
	6.48	4.19	1.53	Watch
	5	3.6	1.6
	5.97	4.02	1.63	Watch
	6.33	4	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.87 ↑ (4.27)	3.95 ↑ (3.75)	1.58 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
16.1%

Draw
24%

Sunderland
59.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

25%

53.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

24.2%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oxford United's form might have worsened.

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sunderland's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oxford United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4%	16%	80%

Oxford United - Sunderland Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Sunderland (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sunderland will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.32% – 95.68%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sunderland will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Sunderland (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Ingram M. (G) 15. Spencer B. 37. Makosso C. 3. Brown C. 26. Currie J. 4. Vaulks W. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 17. Mills S. 33. Donley J. 32. Jeon Jin-Woo 27. Lankshear W.	22. Roefs R. (G) 32. Hume T. 20. Mukiele N. 13. O'Nien L. (C) 3. Cirkin D. 6. Geertruida L. 19. Diarra H. 7. Talbi C. 28. Le Fee E. 14. Mundle R. 18. Isidor W.
Substitutes
1. Cumming J. (G) 10. Emakhu A. 9. Harris M. 5. Konak Y. E. 2. Long S. 38. McDonnell J. 7. Placheta P. 12. Roosken R. 11. ter Haar Romeny O.	10. Angulo N. 37. Bi J. T. 9. Brobbey B. 31. Ellborg M. (G) 51. Jones J. 12. Mayenda E. 11. Rigg C. 27. Sadiki N. 53. Whittaker J.
Coaches
Bloomfield M.	Le Bris R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Diarra H. (Penalty Awarded),
33', Le Fee E. 🟨,
36', Hume T. 🟨,
40', Vaulks W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Isidor W. 🟨,
62', Brannagan C. 🟨,
64', Isidor W. ↓, Mayenda E. ↑,
64', Diarra H. ↓, Sadiki N. ↑,
65', Brannagan C. ↓, McDonnell J. ↑,
65', Jeon Jin-Woo ↓, Emakhu A. ↑,
65', Donley J. ↓, ter Haar Romeny O. ↑,
68', O'Nien L. 🟨,
75', Bloomfield M. 🟨,
81', Talbi C. ↓, Bi J. T. ↑,
82', Currie J. ↓, Roosken R. ↑,
82', Mills S. ↓, Placheta P. ↑,
90+3', Sadiki N. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1.

Oxford has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Sunderland has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Sunderland is the team to beat.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Oxford won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1:1.2).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Sunderland: 0.99% Oxford Utd: 0.32%

Last Results with these Odds

Oxford United - the odds 4.27 are the expected chance of winning is 21.94%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Championship
10.02.26	Oxford United - Norwich City	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Coventry City - Oxford United	0:0 ✺
03.02.26	Sheffield United - Oxford United	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Oxford United - Birmingham City	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Leicester City - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LTLLW
- Sunderland AFC
English Premier League
11.02.26	Sunderland - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Arsenal - Sunderland	3:0 ✺
02.02.26	Sunderland - Burnley	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	West Ham United - Sunderland	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Sunderland - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
26.04.25	Oxford United - Sunderland	2:0
26.10.24	Sunderland - Oxford United	2:0
English League One
09.04.22	Oxford United - Sunderland	1:2
04.12.21	Sunderland - Oxford United	1:1
02.04.21	Sunderland - Oxford United	3:1
19.09.20	Oxford United - Sunderland	0:2
15.02.20	Oxford United - Sunderland	0:1

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