Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Stuttgart		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.8	3.8	Watch
	1.88	3.95	3.7	Watch
	1.93	4.01	4
	1.00	16.03	100.00	Watch
	1.9	4.1	4.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.66)	6.38 ↑ (4.12)	23.12 ↑ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stuttgart
74.5%

Draw
20%

St. Pauli
5.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

23.1%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.6%

25.6%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stuttgart's performance.

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and St. Pauli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stuttgart that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that St. Pauli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.9%	11.1%	20%

Stuttgart - St. Pauli Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Stuttgart will win (votes: 30 - 68.2%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 9 - 20.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stuttgart: 54.4% – 82%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 11 - 68.8%). St. Pauli (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - St. Pauli (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 11 - 64.7%). St. Pauli (votes: 6 - 35.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Nubel A. (G) 22. Assignon L. 29. Jeltsch F. 24. Chabot J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 30. Andres C. 6. Stiller A. 8. Tomas T. 11. El Khannouss B. 18. Leweling J. 9. Demirovic E. (C)	22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. (C) 25. Dzwigala A. 2. Saliakas M. 6. Sands J. 16. Fujita J. 23. Oppie L. 10. Sinani D. 27. Hountondji A. 28. Pereira Lage M.
Substitutes
2. Al Dakhil A. 27. Bouanani B. 21. Drljaca S. (G) 10. Fuhrich C. 3. Hendriks R. 16. Karazor A. 28. Nartey N. 15. Stenzel P. 4. Vagnoman J.	17. Afolayan O. 20. Ahlstrand E. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 11. Pyrka A. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 44. Schmidt N. 1. Voll B. A. (G)
Coaches
Hoeness S.	Blessin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Stiller A. (Pen),
40', Sands J. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Demirovic E. ⚽, Leweling J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 2 - 0, El Khannouss B. ⚽, Demirovic E. (A),
62', Hountondji A. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
62', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
67', Afolayan O. 🟨,
73', Tomas T. ↓, Fuhrich C. ↑,
74', Sinani D. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
82', Dzwigala A. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
82', Saliakas M. ↓, Pyrka A. ↑,
85', Demirovic E. ↓, Bouanani B. ↑,
85', Mittelstadt M. ↓, Hendriks R. ↑,
90+2', Andres C. ↓, Karazor A. ↑,
90+2', Leweling J. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 3.

Stuttgart has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

St. Pauli is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Stuttgart has had a series of away games.

In this match, Stuttgart is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Stuttgart: Bredlow F. (Knee Injury) Diehl J. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Ankle Injury) Stergiou L. (Ankle Injury) Undav D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in St. Pauli: Ceesay A. (Foot Injury) Irvine J. (Muscle Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Stuttgart: Jaquez L. (Broken nose)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Stuttgart won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Freiburg - Stuttgart	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Sonnenhof Großaspach - Stuttgart	2:6 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.08.25	Stuttgart - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
26.08.25	Eintracht Braunschweig - Stuttgart	4:5 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
23.08.25	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWWWL
- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
14.09.25	St. Pauli - Augsburg	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.08.25	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	3:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Eintracht Norderstedt - St. Pauli	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
03.05.25	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	0:1
21.12.24	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	0:1
German 2 Bundesliga
01.02.20	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	1:1
17.08.19	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	2:1
29.01.17	St. Pauli - Stuttgart	0:1
08.08.16	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	2:1
German DFB Pokal
31.10.12	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	3:0

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