Match Info

Premier League - Round 22

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadium of Light (Sunderland)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sunderland		Crystal Palace

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.2	3.1
	2.45	3.2	3.1
	2.44	3.2	3.24	Watch
	2.4	3	3
	2.49	3.27	3.25	Watch
	2.4	3.1	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.75)	3.16 ↓ (3.2)	3.15 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sunderland
39.4%

Draw
30.3%

Crystal Palace
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

29.7%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

30%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Crystal Palace has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Crystal Palace might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crystal Palace than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crystal Palace could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40.5%	38.1%	21.4%

Sunderland - Crystal Palace Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Sunderland will win (votes: 17 - 40.5%). Crystal Palace will win (votes: 9 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 38.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sunderland: 25.7% – 55.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Sunderland (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Crystal Palace (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Sunderland (2.03) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Sunderland (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Sunderland (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Crystal Palace (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Roefs R. (G) 32. Hume T. 20. Mukiele N. 5. Ballard D. 15. Alderete O. 17. Mandava R. 28. Le Fee E. 34. Xhaka G. (C) 27. Sadiki N. 14. Mundle R. 9. Brobbey B.	1. Henderson D. (C) 26. Richards C. 5. Lacroix M. 8. Lerma J. 55. Devenny J. 20. Wharton A. 19. Hughes W. 3. Mitchell T. 11. Johnson B. 10. Pino Y. 14. Mateta J.
Substitutes
24. Adingra S. 3. Cirkin D. 6. Geertruida L. 18. Isidor W. 12. Mayenda E. 4. Neil D. 13. O'Nien L. 1. Patterson A. (G) 11. Rigg C.	44. Benitez W. (G) 23. Canvot J. 17. Clyne N. 86. Drakes-Thomas J. 30. Imray D. 31. Matthews R. (G) 34. Riad C. 24. Sosa B. 12. Uche C.
Coaches
Le Bris R.	Glasner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', Richards C. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Pino Y. ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Le Fee E. ⚽, Mukiele N. (A),
36', Wharton A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Hume T. 🟨,
63', Mitchell T. 🟨,
63', Mukiele N. 🟨,
66', Alderete O. 🟨,
71', 2 - 1, Brobbey B. ⚽, Sadiki N. (A),
84', Brobbey B. ↓, Mayenda E. ↑,
88', Mundle R. ↓, Cirkin D. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sunderland won 2.

Recent performances by Sunderland have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Crystal Palace is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Sunderland: Diarra H. (International duty) Masuaku A. (Ankle Injury) Talbi C. (International duty) Traore B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Crystal Palace: Cardines R. (Muscle Injury) Doucoure C. (Knee Injury) Kamada D. (Hamstring Injury) Kporha C. (Back Injury) Munoz D. (Knee Injury) Riad C. (Lacking Match Fitness) Sarr I. (International duty)

There are questionable in Crystal Palace: Clyne N. (Muscle Injury) Lerma J. (Head Injury) Nketiah E. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Sunderland won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Sunderland won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1.3:2.3).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Sunderland: 0.15% Crystal Palace: 0.13%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6:10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6:11	-5	4

Last Results with these Odds

Crystal Palace - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 35.82%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sunderland AFC
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Everton - Sunderland	1:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Brentford - Sunderland	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Sunderland	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Sunderland - Manchester City	0:0 ✺
28.12.25	Sunderland - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WLTTT
- Crystal Palace
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Macclesfield Town - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Crystal Palace - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Newcastle United - Crystal Palace	2:0 ✺
01.01.26	Crystal Palace - Fulham	1:1 ✺
28.12.25	Crystal Palace - Tottenham Hotspur	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
13.09.25	Crystal Palace - Sunderland	0:0
04.02.17	Crystal Palace - Sunderland	0:4
24.09.16	Sunderland - Crystal Palace	2:3
01.03.16	Sunderland - Crystal Palace	2:2
23.11.15	Crystal Palace - Sunderland	0:1
11.04.15	Sunderland - Crystal Palace	1:4
03.11.14	Crystal Palace - Sunderland	1:3

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