Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadium of Light (Sunderland)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sunderland		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.2
	3.45	3.4	2.18
	3.52	3.45	2.2
	3.43	3.41	2.16	Watch
	3.4	3.25	2.15
	3.44	3.44	2.23	Watch
	3.5	3.4	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↓ (3.59)	3.39 ↓ (3.44)	2.18 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sunderland
27.8%

Draw
28.2%

Newcastle United
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

27.6%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.1%

27.2%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.5%	30%	42.5%

Sunderland - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Sunderland will win (votes: 10 - 26.3%). Newcastle will win (votes: 17 - 44.7%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 28.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 28.9% – 60.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Sunderland (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Newcastle (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Sunderland (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Newcastle (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Newcastle (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Sunderland (2.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Sunderland (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Newcastle (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Roefs R. (G) 20. Mukiele N. 5. Ballard D. 15. Alderete O. 17. Mandava R. 27. Sadiki N. 34. Xhaka G. (C) 25. Traore B. 28. Le Fee E. 7. Talbi C. 9. Brobbey B.	32. Ramsdale A. (G) 21. Livramento V. 12. Thiaw M. 33. Burn D. 3. Hall L. 67. Miley L. 8. Tonali S. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 20. Elanga A. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.
Substitutes
24. Adingra S. 6. Geertruida L. 32. Hume T. 18. Isidor W. 12. Mayenda E. 14. Mundle R. 4. Neil D. 1. Patterson A. (G) 11. Rigg C.	11. Barnes H. 7. Joelinton 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 41. Ramsey J. 26. Ruddy J. (G) 5. Schar F. 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y.
Coaches
Le Bris R.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Brobbey B. 🟨,
34', Mukiele N. 🟨,
42', Burn D. ↓, Schar F. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, Woltemade N. (Own goal),
57', Tonali S. 🟨,
58', Mandava R. 🟨,
59', Gordon A. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
59', Tonali S. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
59', Elanga A. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
71', Brobbey B. ↓, Isidor W. ↑,
71', Traore B. ↓, Hume T. ↑,
75', Woltemade N. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
83', Talbi C. ↓, Mundle R. ↑,
86', Le Fee E. 🟨,
90+4', Bruno Guimaraes 🟨,
90+4', Willock J. 🟨,
90+4', Isidor W. 🟨,
90+5', Thiaw M. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sunderland won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Sunderland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Newcastle could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Sunderland: Alese A. (Shoulder Injury) Diarra H. (Groin Injury) O'Nien L. (Red Card)

There will not play in Newcastle: Botman S. (Lower Back Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Trippier K. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Joelinton (Injury) Pope N. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Sunderland won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Sunderland won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.91%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sunderland AFC
English Premier League
06.12.25	Manchester City - Sunderland	3:0 ✺
03.12.25	Liverpool - Sunderland	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Sunderland - Bournemouth	3:2 ✺
22.11.25	Fulham - Sunderland	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Sunderland - Arsenal	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 LTWLT
- Newcastle United
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:1 ✺
02.12.25	Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Everton - Newcastle United	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
06.01.24	Sunderland - Newcastle United	0:3
English Premier League
20.03.16	Newcastle United - Sunderland	1:1
25.10.15	Sunderland - Newcastle United	3:0
05.04.15	Sunderland - Newcastle United	1:0
21.12.14	Newcastle United - Sunderland	0:1
01.02.14	Newcastle United - Sunderland	0:3
27.10.13	Sunderland - Newcastle United	2:1

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