Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 6
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 4, Pickx+ Sports 4, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	17:00	HBO Max
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 2
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN 3
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, V Sport Fotbool
France	21:00	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1
Germany	21:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	20:00	SÝN Sport 3
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 6
Mexico	14:00	HBO Max
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport LaLiga
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ 360
Portugal	20:00	DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	04:00	beIN Sports 2
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport PSL
South America	—	Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 6
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7
Thailand	03:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	23:00	Tabii Spor 5, Tabii
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus


	Olympique Marseille		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	2.3
	3.05	3.55	2.38
	3.2	3.5	2.36
	2.96	3.38	2.39	Watch
	3.14	3.54	2.33
	3.1	3.4	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.97)	3.48 ↑ (3.37)	2.34 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
31.2%

Draw
27.7%

Newcastle United
41.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.1%

28.3%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

27.9%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.7%	24.7%	50.7%

Olympique Marseille - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 67 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 18 - 26.9%). Newcastle will win (votes: 34 - 50.7%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 22.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 38.7% – 62.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 4 - 14.3%). Newcastle (votes: 14 - 50%). Tie (votes: 10 - 35.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Newcastle (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.5 - Newcastle (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 4 - 12.9%). Newcastle (votes: 17 - 54.8%). Tie (votes: 10 - 32.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 28. Pavard B. 5. Balerdi L. (C) 33. Emerson 22. Weah T. 18. Vermeeren A. 23. Hojbjerg P. 50. Bakola D. 14. Paixao I. 97. Aubameyang P. 10. Greenwood M.	1. Pope N. (G) 21. Livramento V. 12. Thiaw M. 5. Schar F. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 28. Willock J. 23. Murphy J. 10. Gordon A. 11. Barnes H.
Substitutes
12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 6. Garcia U. 8. Gomes A. 19. Kondogbia G. 76. Mmadi T. 26. Nadir B. 17. O'Riley M. 40. Van Neck J. (G) 34. Vaz R.	85. Alabi S. 4. Botman S. 20. Elanga A. 3. Hall L. 7. Joelinton 67. Miley L. 37. Murphy A. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 31. Thompson M. (G) 27. Woltemade N.
Coaches
De Zerbi R.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Balerdi L. 🟨,
6', 0 - 1, Barnes H. ⚽,
20', Willock J. 🟨,
36', Bakola D. 🟨,
42', Gordon A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', 1 - 1, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Bakola D. (A),
50', 2 - 1, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Weah T. (A),
52', Emerson 🟨,
61', Livramento V. ↓, Hall L. ↑,
61', Schar F. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
61', Murphy J. ↓, Miley L. ↑,
62', Bakola D. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
65', Burn D. 🟨,
67', Greenwood M. 🟨,
72', Gordon A. ↓, Woltemade N. ↑,
72', Willock J. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
84', Vermeeren A. 🟨,
88', Greenwood M. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
90+2', Aubameyang P. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,

Preview

Marseille is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Newcastle has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Marseille: Aguerd N. (Groin Injury) Blanco R. (Inactive) Gouiri A. (Shoulder Injury) Lirola P. (Inactive) Maupay N. (Inactive) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Murillo M. (Tendon Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury) Vermot T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Newcastle: Ashby H. (Thigh Injury) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Lascelles J. (Inactive) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Ruddy J. (Inactive) Trippier K. (Knock) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 39.63%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
21.11.25	Nice - Olympique Marseille	1:5 ✺
08.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Brest	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.11.25	Auxerre - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Olympique Marseille - Angers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWT
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
22.11.25	Newcastle United - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Brentford - Newcastle United	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Newcastle United - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
02.11.25	West Ham United - Newcastle United	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
29.10.25	Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWLW

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