Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Olympique Marseille		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	2.3
	3.05	3.55	2.38
	3.2	3.5	2.36
	2.96	3.38	2.39	Watch
	3.14	3.54	2.33
	3.1	3.4	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.97)	3.48 ↑ (3.37)	2.34 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
31.2%

Draw
27.7%

Newcastle United
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

28.3%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

27.9%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.7%	24.7%	50.7%

Olympique Marseille - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 67 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 18 - 26.9%). Newcastle will win (votes: 34 - 50.7%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 22.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 38.7% – 62.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 4 - 14.3%). Newcastle (votes: 14 - 50%). Tie (votes: 10 - 35.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Newcastle (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.5 - Newcastle (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 4 - 12.9%). Newcastle (votes: 17 - 54.8%). Tie (votes: 10 - 32.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 28. Pavard B. 5. Balerdi L. (C) 33. Emerson 22. Weah T. 18. Vermeeren A. 23. Hojbjerg P. 50. Bakola D. 14. Paixao I. 97. Aubameyang P. 10. Greenwood M.	1. Pope N. (G) 21. Livramento V. 12. Thiaw M. 5. Schar F. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 28. Willock J. 23. Murphy J. 10. Gordon A. 11. Barnes H.
Substitutes
12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 6. Garcia U. 8. Gomes A. 19. Kondogbia G. 76. Mmadi T. 26. Nadir B. 17. O'Riley M. 40. Van Neck J. (G) 34. Vaz R.	85. Alabi S. 4. Botman S. 20. Elanga A. 3. Hall L. 7. Joelinton 67. Miley L. 37. Murphy A. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 31. Thompson M. (G) 27. Woltemade N.
Coaches
De Zerbi R.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Balerdi L. 🟨,
6', 0 - 1, Barnes H. ⚽,
20', Willock J. 🟨,
36', Bakola D. 🟨,
42', Gordon A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', 1 - 1, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Bakola D. (A),
50', 2 - 1, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Weah T. (A),
52', Emerson 🟨,
61', Livramento V. ↓, Hall L. ↑,
61', Schar F. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
61', Murphy J. ↓, Miley L. ↑,
62', Bakola D. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
65', Burn D. 🟨,
67', Greenwood M. 🟨,
72', Gordon A. ↓, Woltemade N. ↑,
72', Willock J. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
84', Vermeeren A. 🟨,
88', Greenwood M. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
90+2', Aubameyang P. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,

Preview

Marseille is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Newcastle has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Marseille: Aguerd N. (Groin Injury) Blanco R. (Inactive) Gouiri A. (Shoulder Injury) Lirola P. (Inactive) Maupay N. (Inactive) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Murillo M. (Tendon Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury) Vermot T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Newcastle: Ashby H. (Thigh Injury) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Lascelles J. (Inactive) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Ruddy J. (Inactive) Trippier K. (Knock) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 39.63%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
21.11.25	Nice - Olympique Marseille	1:5 ✺
08.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Brest	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.11.25	Auxerre - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Olympique Marseille - Angers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWT
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
22.11.25	Newcastle United - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Brentford - Newcastle United	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Newcastle United - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
02.11.25	West Ham United - Newcastle United	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
29.10.25	Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWLW

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