Match Info

ENGLAND: CHAMPIONSHIP - ROUND 5

Date: 2 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadium of Light (Sunderland)

Referee: Coote D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport
Poland	Viaplay
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Xtra
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	Sky Sports


	Sunderland		Southampton

	1	X	2
	3	3.6	2.3	Watch
	2.9	3.6	2.4
	3.01	3.67	2.37
	2.62	3.3	2.25
	2.91	3.56	2.33	Watch
	2.85	3.55	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.41)	3.55 ↑ (3.51)	2.34 ↑ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sunderland
32.9%

Draw
26.7%

Southampton
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

26.4%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

26.3%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sunderland's performance.

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Southampton might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sunderland that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Southampton could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Sunderland - Southampton Predictions

Users Predictions: Southampton will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Patterson A. (G) 32. Hume T. 13. O'Nien L. (C) 5. Ballard D. 3. Cirkin D. 24. Neil D. 39. Ekwah P. 17. Ba A. 46. Dack B. 20. Clarke J. 7. Bellingham J.	31. Bazunu G. (G) 2. Walker-Peters K. 35. Bednarek J. 6. Holgate M. 3. Manning R. 16. Smallbone W. 4. Downes F. 17. Armstrong S. 18. Mara S. 9. Armstrong A. (C) 23. Edozie S.
Substitutes
19. Bennette J. 30. Bishop N. (G) 2. Huggins N. 21. Pritchard A. 31. Rigg C. 23. Seelt J. 9. Silva L. 18. Taylor E. 25. Triantis N.	10. Adams C. 22. Alcaraz C. 27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 7. Aribo J. 14. Bree J. 24. Charles S. 26. Fraser R. 21. Harwood-Bellis T. 1. McCarthy A. (G)
Coaches
Mowbray T.	Martin R.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sunderland won 0.

Sunderland is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

S`hampton is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Sunderland won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Sunderland won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sunderland AFC
English League Championship
26.08.23	Coventry City - Sunderland	0:0 ✺
19.08.23	Sunderland - Rotherham United	2:1 ✺
12.08.23	Preston North End - Sunderland	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.23	Sunderland - Crewe Alexandra	1:2 penalties ✺
English League Championship
06.08.23	Sunderland - Ipswich Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWLLL
- Southampton FC
English League Championship
26.08.23	Southampton - Queens Park Rangers	2:1 ✺
19.08.23	Plymouth Argyle - Southampton	1:2 ✺
12.08.23	Southampton - Norwich City	4:4 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.23	Gillingham - Southampton	3:1 ✺
English League Championship
04.08.23	Sheffield Wednesday - Southampton	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
11.02.17	Sunderland - Southampton	0:4
English League Cup
26.10.16	Southampton - Sunderland	1:0
English Premier League
27.08.16	Southampton - Sunderland	1:1
05.03.16	Southampton - Sunderland	1:1
07.11.15	Sunderland - Southampton	0:1
02.05.15	Sunderland - Southampton	2:1
18.10.14	Southampton - Sunderland	8:0

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