Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 30

Date: 4 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Gander Green Lane (London)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)


	Sutton United		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.2	2.45
	2.85	3.1	2.5
	3	3.2	2.35
	3.15	3.05	2.2
	2.96	3.27	2.57
	2.88	3.1	2.5
	2.9	3.22	2.49	Watch
	2.8	3.05	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.12)	3.15 (3.15)	2.44 ↓ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sutton United
31.9%

Draw
29.7%

Stevenage Borough
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

30.7%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

32.1%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sutton United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Sutton United - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Sutton will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Stevenage will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sutton: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

Sutton has the most likely position - 14 (10.21%), has project points - 63, has currently - 39, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (9%), has a very small chance of promoted (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Stevenage has the most likely position - 1 (44.15%), has project points - 89, has currently - 55, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (17%), has a good chance of promoted (84%), has a chance of win league (44%).

This event has small quality 12, importance 47, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Now both teams are in good shape.

Stevenage could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Sutton won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Sutton won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sutton United
English League Two
28.01.23	Harrogate Town - Sutton United	0:1 ✺
14.01.23	Salford City - Sutton United	2:0 ✺
07.01.23	Tranmere Rovers - Sutton United	2:2 ✺
01.01.23	Sutton United - AFC Wimbledon	2:1 ✺
29.12.22	Sutton United - Gillingham	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLTWW
- Stevenage Borough
English FA Cup
29.01.23	Stoke City - Stevenage Borough	3:1 ✺
English League Two
21.01.23	Stevenage Borough - Leyton Orient	3:0 ✺
14.01.23	Harrogate Town - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
08.01.23	Aston Villa - Stevenage Borough	1:2 ✺
English League Two
02.01.23	Stevenage Borough - Gillingham	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 39.3 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
04.10.22	Stevenage Borough - Sutton United	3:0
15.01.22	Stevenage Borough - Sutton United	3:3
English EFL Trophy
30.11.21	Sutton United - Stevenage Borough	1:0 penalties
English League Two
11.09.21	Sutton United - Stevenage Borough	2:1

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