Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 27

Date: 14 January 2023, Saturday

Location: EnviroVent Stadium (Harrogate)

Referee: Herczeg A. (Eng)


	Harrogate Town		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.3	1.91
	3.9	3.25	1.95
	4.2	3.4	1.85
	3.8	3.3	1.94
	4.33	3.38	1.97
	3.9	3.3	1.95
	4.1	3.54	1.97	Watch
	3.75	3.3	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↑ (3.91)	3.35 ↓ (3.46)	1.93 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harrogate Town
23.3%

Draw
28.1%

Stevenage Borough
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

27.9%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

28.7%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harrogate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	27.3%	45.5%

Harrogate Town - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Harrogate will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Stevenage will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stevenage: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

Harrogate has the most likely position - 21 (15.13%), has project points - 47, has currently - 23, has a chance of relegated (17%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Stevenage has the most likely position - 2 (29.16%), has project points - 86, has currently - 51, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (25%), has a good chance of promoted (74%), has a chance of win league (22%).

This event has small quality 11, importance 42, small match rating 26. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Harrogate is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Stevenage is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Stevenage is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Harrogate won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 0-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Harrogate won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harrogate Town
English League Two
07.01.23	Harrogate Town - Colchester United	1:3 ✺
01.01.23	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	3:3 ✺
29.12.22	Bradford City - Harrogate Town	1:0 ✺
26.12.22	Harrogate Town - Grimsby Town	3:2 ✺
03.12.22	Rochdale - Harrogate Town	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LTLWW
- Stevenage Borough
English FA Cup
08.01.23	Aston Villa - Stevenage Borough	1:2 ✺
English League Two
02.01.23	Stevenage Borough - Gillingham	1:0 ✺
30.12.22	Stevenage Borough - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
27.12.22	Leyton Orient - Stevenage Borough	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
13.12.22	Portsmouth - Stevenage Borough	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 40.9 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
24.09.22	Stevenage Borough - Harrogate Town	1:0
29.01.22	Stevenage Borough - Harrogate Town	3:0
25.09.21	Harrogate Town - Stevenage Borough	0:0
06.03.21	Stevenage Borough - Harrogate Town	1:0
27.10.20	Harrogate Town - Stevenage Borough	0:0

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