Match Info

CHINA: FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 June 2024, Saturday


	Suzhou Dongwu		Beijing Guoan

	1	X	2
				Watch
	7.5	4.4	1.34
	8.5	4.75	1.35
	8	4.49	1.35
	8	4.49	1.36
	8.5	4.4	1.3
	8.25	4.6	1.35	Watch
	7.4	4.4	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.02 ↑ (5.93)	4.5 ↑ (3.97)	1.34 ↓ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Suzhou Dongwu
11.4%

Draw
20.4%

Beijing Guoan
68.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.3%

22.9%

61.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.2%

23.1%

62.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Suzhou Dongwu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Beijing Guoan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Beijing Guoan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Suzhou Dongwu than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beijing Guoan than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Beijing Guoan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	28.6%	71.4%

Suzhou Dongwu - Beijing Guoan Predictions

Users Predictions: Beijing Guoan will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
21', Xiang Rongjun 🟥,
22', 0 - 1, Zhang Xizhe ⚽,
35', 0 - 2, Lin Liangming ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
76', 0 - 3, Yu Dabao ⚽,
81', 0 - 4, Wang Ziming ⚽,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Suzhou Dongwu
Chinese Jia League
16.06.24	Jiangxi Lushan - Suzhou Dongwu	2:5 ✺
08.06.24	Heilongjiang Ice City - Suzhou Dongwu	2:4 ✺
01.06.24	Suzhou Dongwu - Yunnan Yukun	0:0 ✺
26.05.24	Qingdao Red Lions - Suzhou Dongwu	3:3 ✺
11.05.24	Suzhou Dongwu - Guangxi Pingguo Haliao	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWTTT
- Beijing Guoan
Chinese Super League
15.06.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Beijing Guoan	2:1 ✺
26.05.24	Beijing Guoan - Nantong Zhiyun	5:2 ✺
21.05.24	Qingdao Hainiu - Beijing Guoan	1:1 ✺
17.05.24	Changchun Yatai - Beijing Guoan	3:2 ✺
11.05.24	Beijing Guoan - Meizhou Hakka	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWTLW

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