Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Sámano		UD Ourense

	1	X	2
	3	2.82	2.32
	3.16	2.78	2.43	Watch
	3	2.75	2.45
	3.02	2.94	2.52
	3.2	2.8	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↓ (3.3)	2.82 ↓ (3)	2.42 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sámano
29.7%

Draw
32.5%

UD Ourense
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

30.1%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

29.8%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sámano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

UD Ourense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sámano than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UD Ourense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sámano - UD Ourense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Nunez M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
87', 1 - 1, Jauregui X. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Sámano is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

UD Ourense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

UD Ourense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

UD Ourense could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Sámano
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
20.12.25	Bergantiños - Sámano	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Sámano - Langreo	1:2 ✺
06.12.25	Atlético Astorga - Sámano	3:0 ✺
29.11.25	Sámano - Rayo Cantabria	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Coruxo - Sámano	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTL
- UD Ourense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
21.12.25	UD Ourense - Sarriana	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - UD Ourense	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	UD Ourense - Numancia	0:3 ✺
29.11.25	Lealtad - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLLWW

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