Match Info

Date: 17 September 2020, Thursday


	São Paulo		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.62	Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.7
	2.55	3.25	2.65
	2.5	3.2	2.7
	2.62	3.46	2.76
	2.55	3.3	2.75
	2.53	3.42	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.01)	3.33 ↑ (3.29)	2.7 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
36.9%

Draw
28.3%

River Plate Montevideo
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

28.4%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

18.6%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Paulo's form might have worsened.

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting River Plate Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with São Paulo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
59.7%	9.7%	30.6%

São Paulo - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 37 - 59.7%). River Plate will win (votes: 19 - 30.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 9.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 47.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Recent matches São Paulo is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

River Plate is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

São Paulo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams São Paulo won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.20	Santos - São Paulo	2:2 ✺
09.09.20	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
06.09.20	São Paulo - Fluminense	3:1 ✺
03.09.20	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	3:0 ✺
30.08.20	São Paulo - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TTWLW
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.09.20	Rentistas - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
13.09.20	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.09.20	River Plate Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion	0:4 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.09.20	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
05.09.20	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
19.01.17	São Paulo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 penalties
Copa Libertadores
13.04.16	São Paulo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
10.03.16	River Plate Montevideo - São Paulo	1:1

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