Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 12

Date: 5 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadio Marco Druso (Bolzano)

Referee: Baroni N. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Südtirol-Alto Adige		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.6
	2.85	2.9	2.65
	2.75	2.95	2.65
	2.9	3.03	2.84
	2.8	3	2.62
	2.75	3.18	2.62	Watch
	2.75	3.05	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (3.44)	3.04 ↑ (3.03)	2.67 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Südtirol-Alto Adige
33.8%

Draw
31%

Cagliari
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

31.8%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

28.3%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Südtirol-Alto Adige has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Südtirol-Alto Adige's performance.

Cagliari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Südtirol Alto Adige - Cagliari Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Südtirol will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Cagliari will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cagliari: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 9 and 10).

Südtirol has the most likely position - 13 (7.78%), has project points - 49, has currently - 18, has a chance of relegated (18%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (23%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Cagliari has the most likely position - 4 (8.55%), has project points - 57, has currently - 15, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (48%), has a chance of promoted (21%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).

This event has quality 32, small importance 29, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Südtirol is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Cagliari is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
29.10.22	SPAL - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
22.10.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Parma	1:0 ✺
16.10.22	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:2 ✺
09.10.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Benevento	1:1 ✺
01.10.22	Palermo - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 TWWTW
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie B
29.10.22	Cagliari - Reggina	1:1 ✺
24.10.22	Ascoli - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
20.10.22	Bologna - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Cagliari - Brescia	2:1 ✺
07.10.22	Genoa - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLLWT

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