Match Info

Serie A - Round 35

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)

Referee: Crezzini V. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Max Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM, fubo Sports Network 6 DRM, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2, Sport 2
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime+
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, FOX One, FOX Sports App, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360, VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Bologna		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.25	4.5	Watch
	1.87	3.4	4.33
	1.85	3.45	4.45	Watch
	1.88	3.55	4.85
	1.83	3.49	4.69	Watch
	1.85	3.2	4.2
	1.89	3.58	4.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.65)	3.42 ↓ (3.78)	4.55 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bologna
51.1%

Draw
27.9%

Cagliari
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

25%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

19.3%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bologna's form might have worsened.

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bologna that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Bologna - Cagliari Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Bologna will win (votes: 20 - 66.7%). Cagliari will win (votes: 5 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bologna: 49.8% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Cagliari (1.93) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 2 - 50%). Cagliari (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Pessina M. (G) 29. De Silvestri L. (C) 5. Fauske Helland E. 26. Lucumi J. 33. Miranda J. 6. Moro N. 8. Freuler R. 10. Bernardeschi F. 23. Sohm S. 30. Dominguez B. 21. Odgaard J.	1. Caprile E. (G) 32. Pedro J. 26. Mina Y. 22. Dossena A. 33. Obert A. 2. Palestra M. 8. Adopo M. 10. Gaetano G. 14. Deiola A. (C) 94. Esposito Se. 90. Folorunsho M.
Substitutes
9. Castro S. 19. Ferguson L. 12. Gnudi R. (G) 14. Heggem T. 22. Lykogiannis C. 7. Orsolini R. 4. Pobega T. 13. Ravaglia F. (G) 11. Rowe J. 41. Vitik M. 20. Zortea N.	20. Albarracin A. 19. Belotti A. 24. Ciocci G. (G) 9. Kilicsoy S. 31. Mendy P. 15. Rodriguez J. 12. Sherri A. (G) 25. Sulemana I. 37. Trepy Y. 28. Zappa G.
Coaches
Italiano V.	Pisacane F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Deiola A. ↓, Sulemana I. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sohm S. ↓, Rowe J. ↑,
52', Adopo M. 🟨,
63', Odgaard J. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
63', Dominguez B. ↓, Orsolini R. ↑,
68', Fauske Helland E. 🟨,
73', Esposito Se. ↓, Mendy P. ↑,
78', Bernardeschi F. ↓, Ferguson L. ↑,
85', De Silvestri L. ↓, Zortea N. ↑,
89', Adopo M. ↓, Zappa G. ↑,
90+5', Castro S. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 4.

Bologna has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cagliari has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Cagliari may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bologna is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bologna: Bonifazi K. (Inactive) Cambiaghi N. (Muscle Injury) Joao Mario (Injury)

There will not play in Cagliari: Borrelli G. (Thigh Injury) Felici M. (Knee Injury) Idrissi R. (Knee Injury) Pavoletti L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bologna: Dallinga T. (Injury) Rowe J. (Muscle Injury) Skorupski L. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Cagliari: Mazzitelli L. (Injury) Mendy P. (Muscle Injury) Rodriguez J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:18. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Bologna won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 1.7:0.7).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Cagliari: 0.38% Bologna: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5:2	3	12
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3:6	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
25.04.26	Bologna - Roma	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Juventus - Bologna	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.04.26	Aston Villa - Bologna	4:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
12.04.26	Bologna - Lecce	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Bologna - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLWL
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie A
27.04.26	Cagliari - Atalanta	3:2 ✺
17.04.26	Inter Milan - Cagliari	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Cagliari - Cremonese	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Sassuolo - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Cagliari - Napoli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
19.10.25	Cagliari - Bologna	0:2
02.03.25	Bologna - Cagliari	2:1
29.10.24	Cagliari - Bologna	0:2
14.01.24	Cagliari - Bologna	2:1
02.09.23	Bologna - Cagliari	2:1
Coppa Italia
20.10.22	Bologna - Cagliari	1:0
Italian Serie A
11.01.22	Cagliari - Bologna	2:1

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