Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 15

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Markku.fi Areena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Onefootball


	Gnistan		IFK Mariehamn

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.25	8.50	Watch
	1.32	5.25	8.25
	1.32	5.00	8.00	Watch
	1.34	5.69	8.93
	1.32	5.58	8.82	Watch
	1.31	5.60	8.80
	1.31	5.33	8.55	Watch
	1.30	5.00	7.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.43)	5.34 ↑ (4.63)	8.43 ↑ (6.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gnistan
71.4%

Draw
17.5%

IFK Mariehamn
11.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

20.3%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.8%

19.1%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gnistan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gnistan's performance.

IFK Mariehamn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for IFK Mariehamn than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	11.1%	5.6%

Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gnistan will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Craninx A. (G) 24. Gnanou R. 67. Obileye A. (C) 4. Marcelo Costa 27. Hannula O. 15. Europaeus G. 31. Jouhi A. 12. Arko-Mensah E. 26. Eremenko R. 17. Akinyemi A. 23. Ylatupa S.	32. Riikonen M. (G) 28. Nissinen J. 38. Amankwah Y. 2. Nurmi N. (C) 5. Koivisto T. 20. Patut E. 23. Widlund V. 8. Heyden J. 31. Ngulube S. 18. Stroud A. 7. Larsson A.
Substitutes
7. Atarah A. 2. Dahlstrom B. 14. Eremenko S. 10. Latonen J. 13. Lyberopoulos O. (G) 40. Ojala J. 11. Perez D. 50. Selenge J.	43. Andersson L. 14. Bergvik A. 16. Huttunen A. 64. Hyvonen M. 1. Lund K. (G) 9. Nunez W. 3. Soiniemi A. 11. Svedberg J.
Coaches
Leppalahti J.	Bjorknesjo R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Ylatupa S. ⚽,
23', Eremenko R. (Penalty Awarded),
26', Ngulube S. ↓, Soiniemi A. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Eremenko R. ↓, Latonen J. ↑,
46', Widlund V. ↓, Svedberg J. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Akinyemi A. ⚽, Latonen J. (A),
53', 2 - 1, Stroud A. ⚽, Larsson A. (A),
65', Larsson A. ↓, Nunez W. ↑,
71', Ylatupa S. ↓, Atarah A. ↑,
71', 3 - 1, Akinyemi A. ⚽,
77', Akinyemi A. ↓, Perez D. ↑,
77', Europaeus G. ↓, Eremenko S. ↑,
79', 3 - 2, Nunez W. ⚽, Svedberg J. (A),
80', Hannula O. ↓, Selenge J. ↑,
81', Stroud A. ↓, Andersson L. ↑,
81', Heyden J. ↓, Bergvik A. ↑,
90+4', 4 - 2, Perez D. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 4.

Gnistan has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mariehamn is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Gnistan is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Gnistan: Bashkirov E. (Knee Injury) Launiala K. (Inactive) Lyberopoulos O. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mariehamn: Dosis N. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:13. (average 1.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gnistan won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:7. (average 2:1).

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

Gnistan: 1.75%

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gnistan	26	11	9	6	40:32	8	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IF Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.07.26	Lahti - Gnistan	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Gnistan - VPS Vaasa	1:1 ✺
23.06.26	FF Jaro - Gnistan	1:1 ✺
17.06.26	Gnistan - Lahti	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LTTWW
- IFK Mariehamn
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.07.26	VPS Vaasa - IFK Mariehamn	4:0 ✺
27.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - Inter Turku	0:2 ✺
23.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - HJK	0:4 ✺
18.06.26	Oulu - IFK Mariehamn	2:1 ✺
13.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
13.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	0:3
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
30.01.26	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	2:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.08.25	IFK Mariehamn - Gnistan	2:5
03.05.25	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	2:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
08.02.25	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	4:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
15.09.24	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	2:1
21.08.24	Gnistan - IFK Mariehamn	2:1

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