Match Info

Premier League - Round 31

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Talanta		Tusker

	1	X	2
	4.6	3.25	1.74
	4.59	3.17	1.69
	4.82	3.27	1.74	Watch
	4.84	3.18	1.73
	4.6	3.25	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.69 ↑ (2.79)	3.22 ↑ (2.92)	1.73 ↓ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Talanta
19.3%

Draw
28.1%

Tusker
52.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

31.3%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

31.6%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Talanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Talanta's form might have worsened.

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tusker's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Talanta than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Talanta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (-16.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tusker, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Talanta - Tusker Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tusker (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Osoro E. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+5', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Talanta won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Talanta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Talanta won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Talanta won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Tusker - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 36.01%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Talanta
Kenyan Premier League
02.05.25	Talanta - Kenya CB	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Ulinzi Stars - Talanta	4:0 ✺
24.04.25	Gor Mahia - Talanta	0:1 ✺
20.04.25	Talanta - Shabana	2:4 ✺
06.04.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Talanta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 WLWLL
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
10.05.25	Tusker - Muranga Seal	2:0 ✺
03.05.25	Tusker - AFC Leopards	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Mathare United - Tusker	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Tusker - Nairobi City Stars	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
20.10.24	Tusker - Talanta	3:1
14.04.24	Tusker - Talanta	1:3
01.10.23	Talanta - Tusker	0:0
12.03.23	Talanta - Tusker	1:1
18.01.23	Tusker - Talanta	2:2
30.04.22	Talanta - Tusker	0:1
27.10.21	Tusker - Talanta	1:2

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