Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Prado (Talavera de la Reina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Talavera de la Reina		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	3.25
	2.1	3.1	3.1
	2.05	3.25	3.4
	2.15	3.2	3.78
	2.06	3.39	3.47	Watch
	2	2.9	3.5
	2.1	3.35	3.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.12)	3.2 ↓ (3.35)	3.42 ↑ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Talavera de la Reina
44.4%

Draw
28.7%

Ourense CF
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

27.7%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

27.3%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Talavera de la Reina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Talavera de la Reina aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Talavera de la Reina - Ourense CF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Belman (G) 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. (C) 4. Lopez A. 5. Molina S. 2. Cuenca D. 24. Nordin M. 16. Navarro I. 14. Molina A. 6. Pitu 21. Montero Sergio 7. Di Renzo G.	13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 5. Prado M. 12. Jelbat A. 14. Perez A. 3. Sanz H. (C) 17. Hernandez R. 22. Yuste A. 8. Ramos J. 6. Castillo N. 10. Ochoa M. 23. Punzano I.
Substitutes
15. Acosta L. 18. Capo P. 23. Farrando M. 20. Ferni 1. Gonzalez J. (G) 9. Moreno M. 17. Ouacharaf B. 3. Roig A. 8. Sanchez L.	11. Aranzabe A. 7. Bouzaig A. 2. Coto E. 21. Guerrero A. 20. Gueye L. 24. Moreno C. 18. Rabadan D. 1. Raton A. (G) 15. Rivas L. 9. Sergio Benito

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Castillo N. 🟨,
37', 🟨,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Molina A. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
66', Pitu ↓, Sanchez L. ↑,
66', Montero Sergio ↓, Ferni ↑,
73', 🟨,
90+11', 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Talavera has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ourense CF has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ourense CF may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Talavera might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Talavera won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.05.26	Osasuna B - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Talavera de la Reina - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Lugo - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Talavera de la Reina - Zamora	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLTL
- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.05.26	Ourense CF - Celta de Vigo B	2:4 ✺
03.05.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Ourense CF	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Ourense CF - Zamora	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Ourense CF - Lugo	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	Ourense CF - Talavera de la Reina	1:2

Upcoming Matches