Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Al Lang Stadium (St. Petersburg, FL)

Referee: Penso C. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Canada	fubo Sports Network
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	ESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN+, KDKA+, SportsEngine Play


	Tampa Bay Rowdies		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.57	3.80	4.50
	1.54	3.90	4.90
	1.65	3.99	5.33
	1.54	4.33	5.3	Watch
	1.62	3.85	5.25
	1.69	3.88	4.54	Watch
	1.59	3.85	4.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.59)	3.94 ↓ (3.99)	4.93 ↓ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Rowdies
57.8%

Draw
23.5%

Lexington
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

23.3%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

22.5%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Rowdies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Tampa Bay Rowdies - Lexington Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Lexington will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Waite J. (G) 26. Acoff D. 55. Archer L. 62. Dossantos N. (C) 20. Ostrem C. 30. Cruz S. 23. Schneider M. 13. Perez L. 17. Mattheus 10. Cicerone R. 9. Myers M.	17. Semmle O. (G) 12. Zengue X. 23. Brown J. 4. Ordonez A. 2. Greene J. 16. Ferri B. 6. Molloy A. (C) 27. Rodrigues B. P. 8. Nick Firmino 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P.
Substitutes
7. Conway E. 14. Henderlong K. 4. Hilton L. 41. Kachurak J. (G) 5. Leerman Y. 16. Micaletto M. 8. Pedro Becker 11. Vivi Quesada G.	10. Adedokun M. 14. Caborn A. 22. Hafferty J. 18. Henry-Scott M. 21. Muir M. 19. Scott T. 31. Thompson B. (G)
Coaches
Casciato D.	Hemmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
12', 0 - 1, Zengue X. ⚽, Rodrigues B. P. (A),
14', 0 - 2, Nick Firmino ⚽, Goodrum P. (A),
37', Cicerone R. (Penalty Awarded),
42', Hemmi M. 🟨,
44', 0 - 3, Epps M. ⚽, Molloy A. (A),
45+3', Schneider M. 🟨,
45+3', Archer L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Acoff D. ↓, Vivi Quesada G. ↑,
46', Archer L. ↓, Leerman Y. ↑,
46', Perez L. ↓, Pedro Becker ↑,
63', Epps M. ↓, Adedokun M. ↑,
70', Zengue X. ↓, Hafferty J. ↑,
70', Rodrigues B. P. ↓, Scott T. ↑,
71', Myers M. ↓, Conway E. ↑,
76', Cicerone R. ↓, Micaletto M. ↑,
78', 1 - 3, Vivi Quesada G. ⚽, Ostrem C. (A),
86', 1 - 4, Scott T. ⚽, Molloy A. (A),
90', Dossantos N. 🟨,
90+1', Goodrum P. ↓, Henry-Scott M. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 10).

Tampa Bay is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Lexington has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Tampa Bay is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tampa Bay won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Rowdies
USL Championship
20.06.26	Brooklyn - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Hartford Athletic	0:1 ✺
10.06.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Charleston Battery	2:2 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:2 ✺
USL Championship
30.05.26	Louisville City - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLTWW
- Lexington SC
USL Cup
20.06.26	Lexington - Indy Eleven	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
13.06.26	Lexington - San Antonio	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	Detroit City - Lexington	1:2 penalties ✺
USL Championship
30.05.26	El Paso Locomotive - Lexington	1:4 ✺
23.05.26	Indy Eleven - Lexington	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
24.05.25	Lexington - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:1

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