Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Al Lang Stadium (St. Petersburg, FL)

Referee: Stevis B. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tampa Bay Rowdies		Monterey Bay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.5	4.1
	1.75	3.65	4.05
	1.88	4.26	3.76
	1.87	3.73	3.77	Watch
	1.78	3.56	4.21	Watch
	1.69	3.7	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.7)	3.73 ↓ (3.76)	4.02 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Rowdies
52.2%

Draw
24.8%

Monterey Bay
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

24.6%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

24.1%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Rowdies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Monterey Bay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Tampa Bay Rowdies - Monterey Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Hamid B. (G) 14. Vancaeyezeele T. 3. Lasso F. 33. Guillen A. (C) 15. Azocar J. 19. Mendez A. 17. Crisostomo D. 11. Bodily B. 5. Marie P. 9. Arteaga M. 28. Pacius W.	1. Campuzano N. (G) 15. Lyons M. 3. Muir J. 5. Guzman C. 12. Robinson G. 31. Ivanovic L. 14. Gallaway P. 6. Fonguck W. 41. Klein J. 88. Gnaulati X. 27. Scott T.
Substitutes
47. Alvarez L. 41. Bandre E. (G) 2. Castellanos R. 20. Moon N. 36. Rodriguez A. 25. Sharp C. 26. Skinner J.	8. Bryant E. 13. Fehr M. 22. Garcia J. 18. Gomez S. (G) 28. Guediri S. 25. Odle D. (G) 21. Sojberg A.
Coaches
Casciato D.	Stewart J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Guzman C. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Pacius W. ⚽, Vancaeyezeele T. (A),
43', Crisostomo D. 🟨,
45+3', Casciato D. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
54', Scott T. 🟨,
57', Scott T. ↓, Guediri S. ↑,
62', 2 - 0, Crisostomo D. ⚽,
68', Lyons M. 🟨,
71', Ivanovic L. ↓, Sojberg A. ↑,
71', Gnaulati X. ↓, Bryant E. ↑,
72', Fonguck W. ↓, Fehr M. ↑,
73', 3 - 0, Pacius W. ⚽,
78', Crisostomo D. ↓, Alvarez L. ↑,
79', Robinson G. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
88', 4 - 0, Arteaga M. ⚽, Marie P. (A),
90', Arteaga M. ↓, Sharp C. ↑,
90', Bodily B. ↓, Skinner J. ↑,
90+4', Marie P. ↓, Moon N. ↑,
90+4', Azocar J. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,

Preview

Tampa Bay has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Monterey Bay is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Tampa Bay is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 2.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Tampa Bay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Rowdies
USL Championship
28.09.25	Loudoun United - Tampa Bay Rowdies	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - North Carolina	2:2 ✺
17.09.25	Birmingham Legion - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:4 ✺
13.09.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	3:3 ✺
06.09.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Sacramento Republic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTWTL
- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
27.09.25	Monterey Bay - Sacramento Republic	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Monterey Bay - New Mexico United	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Monterey Bay - Hartford Athletic	0:4 ✺
06.09.25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Monterey Bay	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Oakland Roots - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
03.08.24	Monterey Bay - Tampa Bay Rowdies	2:2
12.08.23	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Monterey Bay	4:1
02.10.22	Monterey Bay - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:2

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