Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Al Lang Stadium (St. Petersburg, FL)

Referee: Thompson M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Tampa Bay Rowdies		Sacramento Republic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.8
	3	3.2	2.25
	3.18	3.3	2.31
	2.82	3.20	2.48	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.7
	3.09	3.22	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.44)	3.19 ↓ (3.33)	2.46 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tampa Bay Rowdies
33.2%

Draw
29.1%

Sacramento Republic
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

27.8%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

27.3%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tampa Bay Rowdies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Tampa Bay Rowdies - Sacramento Republic Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sacramento Republic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Sacramento Republic (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sacramento Republic (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Bandre E. (G) 2. Castellanos R. 14. Vancaeyezeele T. 33. Guillen A. (C) 5. Marie P. 27. Wyke L. 15. Azocar J. 4. Hilton L. 11. Bodily B. 25. Sharp C. 28. Pacius W.	1. Vitiello D. (G) 21. Djedje R. 6. Kleemann F. 4. Desmond L. 2. Gurr J. 19. Ross N. 20. Willey B. 22. Benitez M. 11. Cicerone R. 8. Lopez R. (C) 90. Bennett K.
Substitutes
47. Alvarez L. 9. Arteaga M. 17. Crisostomo D. 24. Hamid B. (G) 35. Klepacz C. (G) 3. Lasso F. 36. Rodriguez A. 26. Skinner J.	23. Edwards A. 9. Herrera J. 24. Jamieson L. 96. Luis Felipe 99. Mazzola J. (G) 10. Parano C. 3. Spaulding R. 17. Wanner D.
Coaches
Casciato D.	Collins N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Lopez R. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Lopez R. ⚽, Cicerone R. (A),
40', Ross N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lopez R. ↓, Parano C. ↑,
46', Hilton L. ↓, Crisostomo D. ↑,
56', Sharp C. ↓, Arteaga M. ↑,
56', Azocar J. ↓, Skinner J. ↑,
67', Bennett K. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
76', Willey B. ↓, Luis Felipe ↑,
81', Herrera J. 🟨,
84', Bodily B. ↓, Alvarez L. ↑,
90', Djedje R. ↓, Edwards A. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 2, Cicerone R. ⚽, Herrera J. (A),
90+3', Wyke L. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Tampa Bay has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sacramento Republic is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Tampa Bay won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Tampa Bay Rowdies - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.85%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tampa Bay Rowdies
USL Championship
30.08.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Detroit City - Tampa Bay Rowdies	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	North Carolina - Tampa Bay Rowdies	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Indy Eleven - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLTLW
- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
30.08.25	New Mexico United - Sacramento Republic	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	El Paso Locomotive - Sacramento Republic	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
20.08.25	Loudoun United - Sacramento Republic	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
16.08.25	Sacramento Republic - Oakland Roots	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Sacramento Republic - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
01.06.24	Sacramento Republic - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:1
03.06.23	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Sacramento Republic	1:1

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