Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 21

Date: 28 July 2025, Monday

Location: Holm Jalgpallipark (Tartu)


	Tartu Welco		Nõmme United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.9	3.9	1.93
	3.2	3.95	1.82	Watch
	3.28	3.99	1.85
	2.78	4.03	2.09	Watch
	3.25	4.5	1.73
	3.18	3.84	1.91
	2.95	4.5	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.98)	4.1 ↓ (4.43)	1.88 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tartu Welco
29.5%

Draw
22.2%

Nõmme United
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

20.4%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

20%

50.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tartu Welco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Nõmme United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tartu Welco than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Tartu Welco - Nõmme United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tartu Welco (votes: 2 - 40%). Nõmme United (votes: 3 - 60%).

Users Predictions: Nõmme United will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Agarmaa M. (G) 70. Petmanson J. 3. Paul J. 32. Salu R. 4. Sossi M. (C) 40. Viira S. 18. Penu M. 9. Mottus E. 16. Songisepp A. 10. Bawa S. 88. Manucho	1. Lagus G. (G) 23. Laanelaid K. 55. Chanda R. 6. Palts M. 3. Merilai S. 10. Frolov A. (C) 92. Kokka K. 8. Vain B. 49. Beglarishvili Z. 20. Matas K. 9. Ounapuu E.
Substitutes
91. Bachmann T. (G) 27. Ernits H. 6. Kala R. 11. Magi M. 20. Mugra M. 5. Reesar R. 34. Saareleht T. 13. Sokolov I. 21. Vool A.	5. Kais J. 7. Leppik R. 2. Leppsalu K. 80. Molder K. 79. Ossep L. 71. Purg G. (G) 22. Radomskiy A. 13. Truuvaart A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', Manucho 🟨,
29', Mottus E. 🟨,
33', Petmanson J. 🟨,
34', Matas K. 🟨,
34', Ounapuu E. (Pen),
43', 0 - 1, Ounapuu E. ⚽,
45+2', 0 - 2, Chanda R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Penu M. ↓, Mugra M. ↑,
46', Petmanson J. ↓, Vool A. ↑,
46', 0 - 3, Merilai S. ⚽,
61', Laanelaid K. ↓, Leppsalu K. ↑,
61', Kokka K. ↓, Radomskiy A. ↑,
67', Songisepp A. ↓, Kala R. ↑,
67', Mottus E. ↓, Magi M. ↑,
73', Ounapuu E. ↓, Truuvaart A. ↑,
78', Paul J. ↓, Saareleht T. ↑,
81', 1 - 3, Manucho ⚽,
87', Merilai S. 🟨,
90+2', Matas K. ↓, Leppik R. ↑,
90+6', Lagus G. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tartu Welco won 1.

Tartu Welco has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nõmme United is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Nõmme United is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tartu Welco won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Tartu Welco won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1.3:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tartu JK Welco
Estonian Esiliiga
23.07.25	Viimsi JK - Tartu Welco	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Tartu Welco	0:3 ✺
12.07.25	Tartu Welco - Levadia Tallinn U21	3:0 ✺
05.07.25	FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco	1:5 ✺
19.06.25	Tartu Welco - Nõmme Kalju U21	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWWL
- Nõmme United
Estonian Esiliiga
21.07.25	Nõmme United - Flora U21	4:0 ✺
17.07.25	Nõmme United - Flora U21	4:1 ✺
12.07.25	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Nõmme United	0:3 ✺
03.07.25	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Nõmme United	1:5 ✺
28.06.25	Nõmme United - Elva	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
15.05.25	Tartu Welco - Nõmme United	1:1
06.04.25	Nõmme United - Tartu Welco	0:1
17.10.21	Tartu Welco - Nõmme United	2:3
29.09.21	Tartu Welco - Nõmme United	0:4
09.05.21	Nõmme United - Tartu Welco	4:0
Club Friendly
02.02.20	Tartu Welco - Nõmme United	2:2

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