Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 1

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Holm Jalgpallipark (Tartu)


	Tartu Welco		Tallinna Kalev

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.58	4.25	4.05	Watch
	1.47	4.46	4.75
	1.87	3.96	3.28	Watch
	1.53	4	4.5
	1.5	4.45	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (2.05)	4.22 ↓ (4.43)	4.27 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tartu Welco
57.2%

Draw
21.5%

Tallinna Kalev
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

20.3%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tartu Welco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tartu Welco's performance.

Tallinna Kalev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tallinna Kalev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tartu Welco (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Tartu Welco (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tartu Welco (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Kiivit A. ⚽, Magi M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
59', 2 - 0, Mottus E. ⚽,
60', 3 - 0, Mugra M. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tartu Welco won 0.

Kalev may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tartu Welco won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 5:25. (average 0.6:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tartu Welco won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:16. (average 0.6:3.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	31	20	5	6	81:39	42	65
6	Tallinna Kalev	30	11	7	12	52:55	-3	40

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tartu JK Welco
Club Friendly
25.02.26	Narva Trans - Tartu Welco	2:2 ✺
14.01.26	Paide LM - Tartu Welco	5:1 ✺
Estonian Esiliiga
09.11.25	Flora U21 - Tartu Welco	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Tammeka U21 - Tartu Welco	2:2 ✺
27.10.25	Tartu Welco - Elva	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TLTTW
- Tallinna Kalev
Club Friendly
08.02.26	Tallinna Kalev - Pärnu Vaprus	0:6 ✺
25.01.26	Tammeka - Tallinna Kalev	0:3 ✺
18.01.26	Tallinna Kalev - Flora U21	3:1 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
08.11.25	Tallinna Kalev - Kuressaare	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Harju JK Laagri - Tallinna Kalev	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Cup
15.07.23	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev	0:4
Estonian Esiliiga
31.10.21	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev	2:3
12.08.21	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev	0:1
27.05.21	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Welco	2:1
26.10.17	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Welco	4:1
23.07.17	Tartu Welco - Tallinna Kalev	0:3
13.05.17	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Welco	3:0

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