Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 4

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: BUKO Stadion (Velsen-Zuid)

Referee: Higler D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 1
Albania	SuperSport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Austria	Laola1
Belgium	Play Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Germany	Laola1, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Box Go, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Romania	Prima Sport 5
Russia	TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Sport TV2
Turkey	S Sport+
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1, Dubai Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Telstar		Ajax

	1	X	2
	6.25	5.25	1.4	Watch
	6.00	5.25	1.43
	6.4	4.8	1.44
	6.48	5.3	1.45
	6.16	5.24	1.43	Watch
	6.35	5.15	1.41
	6.43	5.35	1.43	Watch
	5.8	5.2	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.23 ↑ (3.5)	5.19 ↑ (3.75)	1.43 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Telstar
15.2%

Draw
18.3%

Ajax
66.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

24.3%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

23.8%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Telstar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Telstar's form might have worsened.

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ajax's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Telstar than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Telstar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-15.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ajax, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Telstar - Ajax Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Ajax (1.60) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - over (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (25 of 25 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ajax will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koeman Jr R. (G) 16. Valk S. 4. Soualhia A. 43. Peersman M. 3. Alders G. 17. Rossen N. 10. Owusu T. 2. Hardeveld J. (C) 7. Mendes R. 27. Brouwer P. 9. Seedorf J.	1. ter Stegen M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 30. Bouwman A. 36. Janse D. 12. Caio Henrique 18. Klaassen D. (C) 24. Mokio J. 8. Brandt J. 23. Berghuis S. 99. Arokodare T. 10. Gloukh O.
Substitutes
6. Ahmed I. 5. Aning P. 18. Caschili G. 8. Demircan E. 14. Kuster H. 13. Mulder F. (G) 15. Nwankwo N. 28. Oudsten R. 20. Reiziger D. (G) 19. Rust F. 23. Shenkman N. 21. Turay F.	67. Abdalla M. 15. Baas Y. 9. Dolberg K. 20. Edvardsen O. 22. Heerkens J. (G) 38. Marcos Leonardo 68. Ouazane A. 26. Paes M. (G) 21. Torrents J. 5. Wijndal O.
Coaches
Brugge H.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Klaassen D. ⚽, Berghuis S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
56', 0 - 2, Berghuis S. ⚽, Gloukh O. (A),
60', 0 - 3, Arokodare T. ⚽, Berghuis S. (A),
65', Klaassen D. ↓, Ouazane A. ↑,
65', Mendes R. ↓, Rust F. ↑,
65', Seedorf J. ↓, Turay F. ↑,
65', Hardeveld J. ↓, Aning P. ↑,
66', Brandt J. ↓, Baas Y. ↑,
73', Berghuis S. ↓, Marcos Leonardo ↑,
73', Gloukh O. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
74', Alders G. ↓, Caschili G. ↑,
77', Peersman M. ↓, Demircan E. ↑,
78', 0 - 4, Marcos Leonardo ⚽,
82', Caio Henrique ↓, Torrents J. ↑,

Preview

Telstar has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ajax is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ajax may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Telstar has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ajax is the team to beat.

There will not play in Ajax: Tsygankov V. (Inactive) van Axel Dongen A. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Blind D. (Injury) Regeer Y. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Telstar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 1.3:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Telstar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 2.5:3.5).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Ajax: 5.05% Telstar: 0.21%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5:12	-7	5

Last Results with these Odds

Telstar - the odds 3.5 are the expected chance of winning is 26%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Telstar
Dutch Eredivisie
14.08.26	Telstar - Sparta Rotterdam	1:3 ✺
08.08.26	NEC Nijmegen - Telstar	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Wolfsburg - Telstar	3:1 ✺
17.07.26	De Graafschap - Telstar	3:6 ✺
11.07.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Telstar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWLWL
- Ajax Amsterdam
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Ajax - Sion	5:3 ✺
20.08.26	Sion - Ajax	2:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
16.08.26	Ajax - Heerenveen	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Shelbourne - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
09.08.26	Zwolle - Ajax	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
11.01.26	Telstar - Ajax	2:3
10.08.25	Ajax - Telstar	2:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.12.24	Ajax - Telstar	2:0
18.12.19	Telstar - Ajax	3:4

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