Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Stade de Tourbillon (Sion)

Referee: Al-Hakim M. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Switzerland	Play RTS, Play RTS, RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF Play, SRF Play
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Sion		Ajax

	1	X	2
	3.80	4.10	1.67
	3.75	3.80	1.77
	3.75	4.00	1.75	Watch
	3.94	4.23	1.80
	3.9	4.37	1.76	Watch
	3.25	4.10	1.89
	3.81	4.24	1.84	Watch
	3.70	4.00	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↓ (3.98)	4.11 ↓ (4.35)	1.79 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sion
25%

Draw
22.8%

Ajax
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

21.7%

54.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.8%

22.6%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sion than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	9.5%	76.2%

Sion - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Sion will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Ajax will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 58% – 94.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Racioppi A. (G) 14. Lavanchy N. 5. Sow N. 17. Kronig J. 20. Hefti N. 88. Kabacalman A. (C) 8. Baltazar 7. Chouaref I. 13. Boteli W. 19. Surdez F. 33. Nivokazi R.	1. ter Stegen M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 30. Bouwman A. 15. Baas Y. 12. Caio Henrique 18. Klaassen D. (C) 6. Regeer Y. 8. Brandt J. 23. Berghuis S. 38. Marcos Leonardo 10. Gloukh O.
Substitutes
29. Berdayes T. 40. Caillet S. (G) 21. Chipperfield L. 38. Kessler R. 10. Kololli B. 22. Llukes A. 9. Lukembila J. 6. Marquinhos Cipriano 77. Rrudhani D. 12. Ruberto F. (G) 37. Sylla F. 55. Villa L.	99. Arokodare T. 9. Dolberg K. 20. Edvardsen O. 22. Heerkens J. (G) 36. Janse D. 24. Mokio J. 68. Ouazane A. 26. Paes M. (G) 2. Rosa L. 37. Sutalo J. 21. Torrents J. 5. Wijndal O.
Coaches
Tholot D.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Baltazar 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Surdez F. ⚽, Kabacalman A. (A),
36', Regeer Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Regeer Y. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Brandt J. ⚽,
60', 1 - 2, Marcos Leonardo ⚽,
69', Mokio J. 🟨,
72', 2 - 2, Chouaref I. (Penalty Awarded),
73', Gloukh O. ↓, Ouazane A. ↑,
73', Marcos Leonardo ↓, Arokodare T. ↑,
73', Caio Henrique ↓, Wijndal O. ↑,
74', 2 - 3, Arokodare T. ⚽,
75', Surdez F. ↓, Rrudhani D. ↑,
75', Nivokazi R. ↓, Sylla F. ↑,
77', Gaaei A. 🟨,
78', Gaaei A. ↓, Rosa L. ↑,
82', Boteli W. ↓, Berdayes T. ↑,
82', Baltazar ↓, Lukembila J. ↑,
85', Chouaref I. ↓, Kololli B. ↑,
87', 2 - 4, Klaassen D. ⚽, Arokodare T. (A),
90+5', Rosa L. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Sion is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ajax is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sion may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sion has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ajax is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Ajax: 5.57%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Sion
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Sion - Noah Yerevan	2:1 ✺
Swiss Super League
09.08.26	Sion - Vaduz	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Noah Yerevan - Sion	2:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
02.08.26	Sion - Luzern	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Sion - BATE Borisov	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWTWW
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
16.08.26	Ajax - Heerenveen	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Shelbourne - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
09.08.26	Zwolle - Ajax	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Ajax - Shelbourne	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.26	Volendam - Ajax	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TTWWW

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