Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 11

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: BUKO Stadion (Velsen-Zuid)

Referee: van den Kerkhof M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 2


	Telstar		Excelsior

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	3.2	Watch
	2.12	3.55	3.35
	2.38	3.81	2.67	Watch
	2.15	3.56	3.38	Watch
	2.16	3.6	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.4)	3.62 ↓ (3.75)	3.15 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Telstar
43.6%

Draw
26.2%

Excelsior
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

25.3%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

25.9%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Telstar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Telstar than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Excelsior could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.1%	47.4%	10.5%

Telstar - Excelsior Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Telstar will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Excelsior will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Telstar: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 6 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Excelsior (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Excelsior (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koeman R. (G) 21. Koswal D. 4. Offerhaus G. 6. Bakker D. (C) 11. Noslin T. 8. Owusu T. 17. Rossen N. 2. Hardeveld J. 39. Ritmeester van de Kamp J. 27. Brouwer P. 9. Zonneveld M.	1. van Gassel S. (G) 2. Bronkhorst I. 4. Widell C. (C) 3. Meissen R. 12. Zagre A. 8. Tielemans M. 23. Yegoian I. 6. Carlen A. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 9. Wlodarczyk S. 11. de Regt G.
Substitutes
13. Bodak T. (G) 19. Hagedoorn S. 10. Hamdaoui M. 7. Hetli S. 15. Lechkar A. 29. Malone D. 16. Mertens D. 5. Nwankwo N. 28. Oudsten R. 20. Reiziger D. (G) 30. Tejan K.	33. Bergraaf J. 34. El Hamdaoui N. 5. Henderikx S. 17. Martens N. 22. Mitrovic S. 10. Naujoks N. 16. Raatsie C. (G) 14. Schouten L. 29. van Duinen M. 7. Yoon D.
Coaches
Correia A.	den Uil R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Ritmeester van de Kamp J. ⚽, Brouwer P. (A),
28', 2 - 0, Owusu T. ⚽, Brouwer P. (A),
32', Zagre A. 🟨,
44', 2 - 1, Zagre A. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Bakker D. (Pen),
60', Tielemans M. ↓, Naujoks N. ↑,
61', Wlodarczyk S. ↓, Bergraaf J. ↑,
61', Carlen A. ↓, Schouten L. ↑,
64', Owusu T. ↓, Tejan K. ↑,
64', Zonneveld M. ↓, Hetli S. ↑,
74', Zagre A. (Pen),
77', 2 - 2, de Regt G. ⚽, Sanches Fernandes D. (A),
79', Brouwer P. ↓, Mertens D. ↑,
82', de Regt G. ↓, Mitrovic S. ↑,
90', Bronkhorst I. 🟨,
90', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
90+2', Rossen N. ↓, Malone D. ↑,
90+2', Noslin T. ↓, Lechkar A. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Telstar won 1.

Recent performances by Telstar have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Excelsior has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Telstar will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Excelsior: Hartjes L. (Knee Injury) Janssen S. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Telstar: Hetli S. (Inactive) Ogidi Nwankwo N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Excelsior: Naujoks N. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Telstar won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:27. (average 1.5:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Telstar won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:18. (average 1.1:2.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Telstar
Dutch KNVB Beker
29.10.25	Lisse - Telstar	0:5 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
25.10.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Telstar	1:0 ✺
19.10.25	Telstar - Heerenveen	2:3 ✺
05.10.25	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Telstar - Go Ahead Eagles	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLW
- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch KNVB Beker
29.10.25	Excelsior Maassluis - Excelsior	1:0 ET ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
26.10.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Excelsior	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Heerenveen - Excelsior	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Excelsior - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.02.25	Telstar - Excelsior	1:3
13.09.24	Excelsior - Telstar	3:2
08.04.22	Excelsior - Telstar	1:4
06.11.21	Telstar - Excelsior	2:5
16.04.21	Telstar - Excelsior	1:1
22.09.20	Excelsior - Telstar	1:2
17.01.20	Excelsior - Telstar	3:3

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