Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 9

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Woudestein (Rotterdam)

Referee: Bos A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	Excelsior		Fortuna Sittard

	1	X	2
	2	3.5	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.7	3.55
	2.04	3.73	3.63
	1.46	4.21	7.05	Watch
	2.05	3.62	3.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.29)	3.75 ↑ (3.65)	4.32 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior
51.3%

Draw
26.1%

Fortuna Sittard
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

26.1%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

27%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Excelsior's performance.

Fortuna Sittard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortuna Sittard might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Excelsior that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Sittard than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortuna Sittard could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Fortuna Sittard will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. van Gassel S. (G) 2. Bronkhorst I. 4. Widell C. (C) 3. Meissen R. 12. Zagre A. 18. Nadje C. 6. Carlen A. 22. Mitrovic S. 23. Yegoian I. 11. de Regt G. 9. Wlodarczyk S.	31. Branderhorst M. (G) 12. Pinto I. (C) 4. Adewoye S. 44. Marquez I. 8. Dahlhaus J. 17. Lonwijk J. 80. Fosso R. 23. Brittijn P. 18. Limnios D. 9. Sierhuis K. 7. Peterson K.
Substitutes
5. Henderikx S. 17. Martens N. 25. Middendorp S. 16. Raatsie C. (G) 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 14. Schouten L. 8. Tielemans M. 29. van Duinen M. 7. Yoon D.	11. Aiko M. 46. Gbemou M. 19. Gladon P. 28. Hubner J. 52. Ihattaren M. 21. Kerkez M. 1. Koopmans L. (G) 25. Martens N. (G) 26. Mendes H.
Coaches
den Uil R.	Buijs D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, de Regt G. ⚽, Yegoian I. (A),
38', Branderhorst M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Peterson K. ↓, Ihattaren M. ↑,
46', Sierhuis K. ↓, Aiko M. ↑,
55', Mitrovic S. ↓, Sanches Fernandes D. ↑,
67', Pinto I. ↓, Gladon P. ↑,
71', Fosso R. 🟨,
71', Wlodarczyk S. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
73', Fosso R. ↓, Mendes H. ↑,
80', Dahlhaus J. ↓, Hubner J. ↑,
81', Nadje C. ↓, Schouten L. ↑,
81', Yegoian I. ↓, Middendorp S. ↑,
90+1', Aiko M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Excelsior might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Excelsior: Hartjes L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fortuna Sittard: Bastien S. (Heart Problems) Bayram R. (Knee Injury) Halilovic A. (Ankle Injury) Sinkgraven D. (Knee Injury) van Ottele S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Excelsior: Schouten L. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Fortuna Sittard: Adewoye S. (Illness) Ihattaren M. (Inactive) Michut E. (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 1.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.2:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
04.10.25	Heerenveen - Excelsior	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Excelsior - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Volendam - Excelsior	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Excelsior - Twente	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LLWLW
- Fortuna Sittard
Dutch Eredivisie
04.10.25	Fortuna Sittard - Volendam	1:0 ✺
26.09.25	Twente - Fortuna Sittard	3:2 ✺
20.09.25	Fortuna Sittard - Utrecht	1:0 ✺
17.09.25	Feyenoord - Fortuna Sittard	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Telstar - Fortuna Sittard	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
03.03.24	Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior	5:2
26.08.23	Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard	2:2
21.05.23	Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard	3:0
17.09.22	Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior	1:0
10.02.19	Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior	4:1
11.08.18	Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard	1:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
07.03.14	Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior	2:2

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