Match Info

Date: 22 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadio Libero Liberati (Terni)

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Ternana		Genoa

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.4	2	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2.05
	3.55	3.45	2
	3.6	3.2	2.05
	3.94	3.4	2.08
	3.9	3.3	1.95
	3.7	3.38	2.02	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (3.4)	3.34 ↑ (3.2)	2.03 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ternana
25.6%

Draw
28.1%

Genoa
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

29.3%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

31.2%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ternana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	18.2%	54.5%

Ternana - Genoa Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Ternana will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). Genoa will win (votes: 12 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genoa: 33.7% – 75.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Ternana has the most likely position - 3 (10.32%), has project points - 61, has currently - 19, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (50%), has a chance of promoted (26%), has a small chance of win league (9%).

Genoa has the most likely position - 1 (20.21%), has project points - 66, has currently - 18, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (49%), has a chance of promoted (47%), has a chance of win league (20%).

This event has quality 40, importance 57, match rating 48. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams in the last matches got series of victories.

Ternana could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Genoa will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Benevento - Ternana	2:3 ✺
08.10.22	Ternana - Palermo	3:0 ✺
01.10.22	Cittadella - Ternana	0:2 ✺
18.09.22	Ternana - Perugia	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Parma - Ternana	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.1 WWWWW
- Genoa CFC
Coppa Italia
18.10.22	Genoa - SPAL	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Nuova Cosenza - Genoa	1:2 ✺
07.10.22	Genoa - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
01.10.22	SPAL - Genoa	0:2 ✺
17.09.22	Genoa - Modena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWTWW

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