Match Info

USL League One

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Sherman Bearcat Stadium (Sherman, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Texoma		AV Alta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.15
	2.68	3.4	2.25
	2.76	3.53	2.34
	2.97	3.53	2.20	Watch
	2.66	3.38	2.29	Watch
	2.85	3.45	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↑ (2.62)	3.43 ↑ (3.37)	2.24 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Texoma
32.7%

Draw
26.5%

AV Alta
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

26.8%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

25.1%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Texoma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

AV Alta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Texoma than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AV Alta than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Texoma - AV Alta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Garcia J. (G) 22. Perkins W. 12. Chavez J. (C) 5. Calfo A. 24. Jordan J. 23. Baker T. 3. Ramos O. 8. McCormick L. 10. Spengler P. 30. Jawneh L. 7. McManus B.	22. Smith D. (G) 19. Cruz S. 44. Pehlivanov K. 26. Pajaro M. 16. Ceja E. 80. Martinez W. 5. Alassane M. 6. Lay O. 7. Desdunes J. 30. Blancas E. 8. Alaribe E.
Substitutes
28. Cristales L. 18. Flowers A. 25. Iamarino D. 4. Kilwien P. 16. Mason D. 1. McCready M. 35. Padilla B. 9. Pepi D. 2. Valentine R.	23. Avilez C. (G) 11. Cerritos A. 10. Ibarra M. 17. Mariona J. 2. Ortiz C. 45. Ramos S. 21. Villalobos J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Cruz S. 🟨,
34', McManus B. 🟨,
41', Spengler P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
68', Jordan J. 🟨,
74', 1 - 0, Spengler P. (Pen),
88', Perkins W. 🟨,
89', Ramos O. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 1, Cerritos A. ⚽,

Preview

Texoma is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alta is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Texoma has had a series of away games.

Alta could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Texoma won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Texoma won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Texoma FC
USL League One
27.09.25	Portland Hearts of Pine - Texoma	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Westchester SC - Texoma	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Texoma - Spokane Velocity	3:3 ✺
06.09.25	Union Omaha - Texoma	5:0 ✺
27.08.25	Forward Madison - Texoma	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLTLL
- AV Alta FC
USL League One
27.09.25	Naples - AV Alta	4:0 ✺
20.09.25	AV Alta - South Georgia Tormenta	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	AV Alta - One Knoxville	1:2 ✺
06.09.25	AV Alta - Forward Madison	3:3 ✺
30.08.25	Chattanooga Red Wolves - AV Alta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
20.08.25	Texoma - AV Alta	3:3
10.05.25	AV Alta - Texoma	0:0

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