Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Tlahuicole (Tlaxcala) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Sanchez M. E. L. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	19:00	Disney+
Brazil	19:00	Disney+
Chile	19:00	Disney+
Colombia	17:00	Disney+
Mexico	16:00	AYM Sports, Disney+, ESPN 4
Peru	17:00	Disney+
Uruguay	19:00	Disney+
Usa	18:00	Aym Sports
Venezuela	18:00	Disney+


	Tlaxcala		Piratas de Veracruz

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.30	1.95
	3.5	3.25	1.95	Watch
	4.09	3.52	1.97
	3.6	3.42	2.03	Watch
	3.85	3.45	1.93
	3.71	3.31	2.01	Watch
	3.35	3.35	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.62 ↑ (3.33)	3.37 ↓ (3.38)	1.98 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tlaxcala
25.6%

Draw
27.5%

Piratas de Veracruz
46.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.1%

27.6%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

27.9%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tlaxcala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Piratas de Veracruz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Piratas de Veracruz than the current prediction. (-2%)

Tlaxcala - Piratas de Veracruz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Bedolla P. (G) 1. Govea I. (C) 29. Trejo Castro M. A. 21. Garcia E. 3. Santos E. 6. Iniestra A. 25. Flores B. 9. Christian 16. Ramirez M. 24. Robles E. 11. Alvarez D.	20. Hernandez H. (C) 14. Gonzalez R. 4. Lopez A. 15. Palomares R. 3. Jaime Sanchez K. Y. 8. Figueroa B. 7. Soto O. 6. Cruz D. 28. Gamboa J. 25. Lajud Martinez D. 10. Lopez G.
Substitutes
19. Camacho Lastra R. E. 12. Freyfeld J. 2. Gonzalez C. 28. Hernandez D. 7. Hernandez E. 31. Hernandez R. 149. Mutoh K. 30. Nuno A. (G) 8. Plascencia F. 159. Zorrilla J.	19. Doumbouya I. 16. Fernandez C. 9. Garcia F. 22. Garcia U. 2. Mantilla A. 17. Ochoa E. 1. Sanchez D. (G) 13. Sanchez D. 21. Vargas E. 23. Venegas J.
Coaches
Ortega A.	Garcia M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Lajud Martinez D. (Penalty Awarded),
23', Lopez A. 🟨,
32', 0 - 2, Cruz D. ⚽,
40', 1 - 2, Robles E. (Penalty Awarded),
45+3', Hernandez H. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
48', Lopez A. 🟨,
49', Lopez G. ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
52', 2 - 2, Robles E. ⚽, Alvarez D. (A),
68', Christian 🟨,
68', Iniestra A. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
68', Govea I. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
70', Soto O. ↓, Venegas J. ↑,
70', Gonzalez R. ↓, Fernandez C. ↑,
76', Palomares R. 🟥,
77', Lajud Martinez D. ↓, Doumbouya I. ↑,
78', Figueroa B. ↓, Vargas E. ↑,
84', Garcia E. ↓, Freyfeld J. ↑,
84', Alvarez D. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
88', Trejo Castro M. A. ↓, Camacho Lastra R. E. ↑,
88', 3 - 2, Christian ⚽, Hernandez E. (A),
90+4', Flores B. 🟨,
90+6', 4 - 2, Christian ⚽, Robles E. (A),

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 13th and 5th in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).

In recent outings, Tlaxcala has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Piratas is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Piratas could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Piratas is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Piratas ✔	14	7	3	4	26:14	12	24
8	Tlaxcala	14	5	4	5	27:27	0	19

Last Results with these Odds

Tlaxcala - the odds 3.33 are the expected chance of winning is 28.06%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.10.26	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Tlaxcala - Cancún	4:1 ✺
20.09.26	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	4:0 ✺
12.09.26	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
04.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 TWLWT
- Piratas de Veracruz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.10.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:0 ✺
24.09.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Piratas de Veracruz	3:0 ✺
18.09.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Venados	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Piratas de Veracruz	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Correcaminos UAT	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWTW

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