Match Info

J3 League - Round 11

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: City Football Station (Tochigi)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tochigi City		Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	2.75
	2.23	3.3	2.9
	2.44	3.3	3.07
	2.42	3.11	3.02	Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.88
	2.48	3.23	2.81	Watch
	2.23	3.3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.18)	3.23 ↓ (3.4)	2.9 (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tochigi City
39.7%

Draw
28.5%

Osaka
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

26.8%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

25.5%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tochigi City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tochigi City than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (-2%)

Tochigi City - Osaka Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Aizawa P. (G) 22. Suzuki H. 28. Konishi K. 15. Sato Y. 5. Okui R. 10. Okaniwa Y. 20. Tosa R. 14. Sekino G. 77. Tanaka P. J. 99. Hiraoka M. 7. Suzuki R.	1. Yamamoto T. (G) 6. Tachino S. 3. Kawakami R. 23. Akiyama T. 16. Hashimoto R. 24. Sato R. 25. Takei S. 33. Woo S. 10. Kubo R. 19. Masuda S. 9. Vinicius Souza
Substitutes
1. Harada Y. (G) 25. Higashikawa H. 33. Inui T. 42. Jonjic M. 16. Kato Jo 8. Mori T. 40. Suzuki K. 90. Utaka P. 26. Utsugi S.	22. Hayashida K. 68. Hirabuki G. (G) 7. Kitsui T. 18. Natsukawa Y. 51. Nishimura M. 27. Sawazaki R. 14. Sumida S. 37. Tsutsumi S. 17. Wada H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Tanaka P. J. (Pen),
18', 2 - 0, Hiraoka M. ⚽, Aizawa P. (A),
35', Sekino G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Woo S. ↓, Sawazaki R. ↑,
46', Kubo R. ↓, Tsutsumi S. ↑,
61', Suzuki R. ↓, Suzuki K. ↑,
61', Hiraoka M. ↓, Utaka P. ↑,
65', Masuda S. ↓, Kitsui T. ↑,
71', Tanaka P. J. ↓, Higashikawa H. ↑,
71', Sekino G. ↓, Mori T. ↑,
75', Sato R. ↓, Nishimura M. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Shimada T. ⚽, Nishimura M. (A),
83', Takei S. ↓, Wada H. ↑,
87', Tosa R. ↓, Utsugi S. ↑,
90+6', Suzuki H. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League).

Tochigi City is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Osaka has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Osaka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tochigi City has had a series of away games.

Recently, Osaka has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tochigi City FC
Japan J3 League
20.04.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tochigi City	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Kochi United - Tochigi City	0:5 ✺
06.04.25	Tochigi City - Fukushima United	2:2 ✺
30.03.25	Tochigi - Tochigi City	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Tochigi City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWTTW
- FC Osaka
Japan J3 League
18.04.25	Osaka - Thespakusatsu Gunma	4:3 ✺
12.04.25	Osaka - Vanraure Hachinohe	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Osaka	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Osaka - Azul Claro Numazu	3:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Osaka - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLWL

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