Match Info

JAPAN: J2 League - Round 15

Date: 12 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Pocarisweat Stadium (Naruto)

Referee: Shimizu S. (Jpn)


	Tokushima Vortis		Tochigi

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	3.8	Watch
	1.93	3.1	3.6
	2	3.2	3.75	Watch
	2.04	3.32	4.1
	2.05	3.12	4.33
	1.91	3.2	3.6
	1.98	3.14	3.92	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.97)	3.19 ↑ (3.12)	3.86 ↓ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokushima Vortis
46.8%

Draw
29.2%

Tochigi
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

29.8%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

29.3%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokushima Vortis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Tochigi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Tokushima Vortis - Tochigi Predictions

Users Predictions: Tokushima Vortis will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Suarez J. (G) 4. Kaique 5. Mori K. 26. Aoki H. 2. Tamukai T. 20. Kodama S. 10. Sugimoto T. 42. Hashimoto K. 7. Tiago Alves 15. Tanahashi A. 16. Watari D.	1. Kawata S. (G) 17. Fujitani T. 2. Hiramatsu W. 33. Rafael Costa 7. Ishida R. 24. Kanbe K. 15. Okuda K. 6. Omori S. 42. Minamino H. 29. Yano K. 9. Ismaila O.
Substitutes
9. Browne N. 8. Kakitani Y. 54. Nagaki R. 13. Nishino T. 11. Sugimori K. 17. Takada S. 21. Tanaka H. (G)	22. Aoshima T. 38. Kobori S. 32. Miyazaki K. 10. Mori T. 5. Otani N. 41. Park Y. 27. Tanno K. (G)
Coaches
Masuda K.	Tanaka M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Tamukai T. 🟨,
36', Kanbe K. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Sugimoto T. ⚽, Tiago Alves (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fujitani T. ↓, Otani N. ↑,
58', Omori S. ↓, Mori T. ↑,
58', Yano K. ↓, Miyazaki K. ↑,
61', Watari D. ↓, Kakitani Y. ↑,
61', Sugimoto T. ↓, Nagaki R. ↑,
62', Tanahashi A. ↓, Sugimori K. ↑,
69', Kakitani Y. 🟨,
75', Kanbe K. ↓, Aoshima T. ↑,
77', Okuda K. 🟨,
77', Hashimoto K. ↓, Takada S. ↑,
83', Tiago Alves ↓, Browne N. ↑,
84', Minamino H. ↓, Kobori S. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tokushima won 2.

Tokushima is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tochigi has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Tokushima will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Tokushima won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 20-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Tokushima won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 League
06.05.24	Fagiano Okayama - Tokushima Vortis	1:2 ✺
03.05.24	Tokushima Vortis - Ehime	0:0 ✺
28.04.24	Tokushima Vortis - Montedio Yamagata	2:1 ✺
20.04.24	Fujieda MYFC - Tokushima Vortis	0:1 ✺
13.04.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tokushima Vortis	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 WTWWL
- Tochigi SC
Japan J2 League
06.05.24	Tochigi - Fujieda MYFC	0:1 ✺
03.05.24	Shimizu S-Pulse - Tochigi	4:1 ✺
28.04.24	Tochigi - Iwaki	0:1 ✺
21.04.24	Kagoshima United - Tochigi	2:1 ✺
13.04.24	Mito HollyHock - Tochigi	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
13.08.23	Tochigi - Tokushima Vortis	2:2
11.06.23	Tokushima Vortis - Tochigi	1:0
30.07.22	Tochigi - Tokushima Vortis	1:1
21.05.22	Tokushima Vortis - Tochigi	0:1
11.11.20	Tokushima Vortis - Tochigi	2:0
09.09.20	Tochigi - Tokushima Vortis	0:1
06.10.19	Tochigi - Tokushima Vortis	1:1

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