Match Info

J1 League - Round 12

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: Ajinomoto Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
China	QQ Sports
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tokyo Verdy		Cerezo Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.6
	2.92	3.11	2.42	Watch
	2.98	3.32	2.52
	3.04	3.27	2.41	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.5
	3.23	3.2	2.33	Watch
	3	3.15	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.49)	3.18 ↓ (3.29)	2.46 ↓ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokyo Verdy
32.2%

Draw
29.5%

Cerezo Osaka
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

28.7%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

30.5%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo Verdy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tokyo Verdy's form might have worsened.

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo Verdy than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tokyo Verdy, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerezo Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	50%	42.9%

Tokyo Verdy - Cerezo Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Tokyo Verdy will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerezo Osaka (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Cerezo Osaka (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Cerezo Osaka (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerezo Osaka (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Vidotto (G) 23. Tsunashima Y. 5. Chida K. 3. Taniguchi H. 22. Onaga H. 8. Saito K. 16. Hirakawa R. 40. Arai Y. 14. Fukuda Y. 11. Yamami H. 10. Kimura Y.	1. Fukui K. (G) 33. Nishio R. 3. Shindo R. 44. Hatanaka S. 6. Noborizato K. 10. Tanaka S. (C) 55. Vitor Bueno 13. Nakajima M. 77. Fernandes L. 9. Rafael Ratao 11. Thiago Andrade
Substitutes
17. Inami T. 37. Kawasaki S. 19. Matsuhashi Y. 20. Meshino S. 6. Miyahara K. 7. Morita K. 21. Nagasawa Y. (G) 9. Someno I. 15. Suzuki K.	14. Funaki K. 8. Kagawa S. 5. Kida H. 21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 38. Kitano S. 17. Sakata R. 48. Shibayama M. 22. Takahashi N. 7. Uejo S.
Coaches
Hiroshi J.	Papastamatis A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', Fukuda Y. 🟨,
7', Vitor Bueno ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
33', 1 - 0, Arai Y. ⚽, Onaga H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Thiago Andrade ↓, Sakata R. ↑,
53', Saito K. ↓, Morita K. ↑,
63', Noborizato K. ↓, Takahashi N. ↑,
63', Nakajima M. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
63', Fukuda Y. ↓, Matsuhashi Y. ↑,
63', Hirakawa R. ↓, Meshino S. ↑,
72', Onaga H. ↓, Miyahara K. ↑,
72', Yamami H. ↓, Someno I. ↑,
80', Nishio R. ↓, Shibayama M. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 16 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tokyo Verdy won 0.

Recent matches Tokyo Verdy is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cerezo Osaka is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Tokyo Verdy: Sako M. (Knee Injury) Yamada G. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Hatanaka S. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Tokyo Verdy won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4:9 (average 0.7:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Tokyo Verdy won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokyo Verdy
Japan J1 League
20.04.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
16.04.25	Blaublitz Akita - Tokyo Verdy	1:2 ET ✺
Japan J1 League
12.04.25	Tokyo Verdy - Vissel Kobe	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
02.04.25	Tokyo Verdy - Tokyo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TWLTT
- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
20.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
16.04.25	Imabari - Cerezo Osaka	3:4 ET ✺
Japan J1 League
12.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Kashima Antlers	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 ✺
02.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
06.07.24	Tokyo Verdy - Cerezo Osaka	1:1
09.03.24	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Verdy	2:1
Japan J2 League
12.11.16	Tokyo Verdy - Cerezo Osaka	1:2
26.06.16	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Verdy	1:0
23.11.15	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Verdy	2:0
08.03.15	Tokyo Verdy - Cerezo Osaka	1:1

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