Match Info

J1 League - Placement Play Offs - 3rd place

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka)


	Cerezo Osaka		Tokyo

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.4	2.35	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.4
	2.88	3.3	2.32	Watch
	3.03	3.4	2.47
	2.98	3.18	2.48	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.38
	2.85	3.46	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.81)	3.33 ↑ (3.21)	2.39 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerezo Osaka
32.6%

Draw
28.1%

Tokyo
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

29.4%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

31.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	28.6%	42.9%

Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tokyo will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Nakamura K. (G) 27. Cools D. 4. Inoue R. 44. Hatanaka S. 66. Ohata A. 18. Ishiwatari N. 10. Tanaka S. (C) 48. Shibayama M. 13. Nakajima M. 14. Yokoyama Y. 11. Thiago Andrade	1. Tanaka H. (G) 2. Muroya S. (C) 24. Scholz A. 17. Inamura H. 42. Hashimoto K. 16. Sato K. 27. Tokiwa K. 37. Koizumi K. 22. Endo K. 9. Marcelo Ryan 23. Sato R.
Substitutes
19. Homma S. 8. Kagawa S. 5. Kida H. 21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 6. Noborizato K. 9. Sakuragawa S. 3. Tanaka H. 7. Uejo S. 35. Yoshino K.	32. Doi K. 10. Higashi K. 31. Kobayashi M. (G) 3. Morishige M. 39. Nakagawa T. 28. Nozawa L. 15. Omori R. 33. Tawaratsumida K. 71. Yamada F.
Coaches
Papas A.	Matsuhashi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Hashimoto K. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Ohata A. (Own goal),
37', Thiago Andrade ↓, Sakuragawa S. ↑,
40', Endo K. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 1, Shibayama M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ohata A. ↓, Noborizato K. ↑,
49', 1 - 2, Marcelo Ryan ⚽, Koizumi K. (A),
62', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Nakagawa T. ↑,
71', Nakajima M. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
71', Yokoyama Y. ↓, Homma S. ↑,
76', Hashimoto K. ↓, Morishige M. ↑,
76', Endo K. ↓, Tawaratsumida K. ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Noborizato K. ⚽, Kagawa S. (A),
86', Koizumi K. ↓, Higashi K. ↑,
86', Nakagawa T. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
90+2', Inoue R. 🟨,
90+3', Shibayama M. ↓, Uejo S. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 0.

Cerezo Osaka is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tokyo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L. (Knee Injury) Sakata R. (Hamstring Injury) Takahashi T. (Back Injury) Thiago Andrade (Yellow Cards) Yengi K. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Tokyo: Arai Y. (Knee Injury) Bangnagande K. (Muscle Injury) Muroya S. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Okuda H. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Tokyo: Hashimoto K. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:30. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1:1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

FC Tokyo: 11.22% Cerezo Osaka: 1.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FC Tokyo	4	2	1	1	8:7	1	7
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3:5	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Cerezo Osaka - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 33.64%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
23.05.26	Fagiano Okayama - Cerezo Osaka	2:3 ✺
17.05.26	Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	6:1 ✺
09.05.26	Cerezo Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2 ✺
06.05.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 penalties ✺
03.05.26	Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWLW
- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
23.05.26	Kashima Antlers - Tokyo	1:0 ✺
16.05.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo	0:1 penalties ✺
10.05.26	Tokyo - Tokyo Verdy	2:1 ✺
06.05.26	Tokyo - JEF United Chiba	0:3 ✺
02.05.26	Tokyo - Kawasaki Frontale	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
06.08.25	Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka	2:1
Japan J1 League
14.06.25	Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka	2:2
20.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo	1:1
08.12.24	Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka	3:0
24.02.24	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo	2:2
06.08.23	Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo	0:1
Japan J League Cup
24.05.23	Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka	0:0

Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide