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Current Win Probability
Toluca 73.2%
Draw 16.1%
Atlético San Luis 10.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
67.7%
19.2%
13.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
67.6%
19.2%
13.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.
Atlético San Luis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético San Luis than the current prediction. (+2.5%)
Toluca - Atlético San Luis Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez H. (G) 19. Simon S. 25. del Villar E. 6. Pereira F. 20. Gallardo J. 5. Romero F. 35. Gutierrez E. 11. Helinho 16. Vinas F. 9. Vega A. (C) 26. Paulinho
25. Lajud M. G. (G) 3. Robson Bambu 31. Aguila E. 18. Cruz A. 2. Torres R. 21. Macias O. 10. Salles-Lamonge S. (C) 5. Meraz R. 11. Rodriguez D. 17. Duarte A. 22. Llorente R.
Substitutes
10. Angulo J. 24. Arce F. 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 8. Castro N. 29. Diaz Price J. 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 22. Garcia L. (G) 13. Luan 15. Perez P.
13. Caicedo J. 20. Flores L. 7. Galdames B. 30. Galindo B. 14. Garcia M. 6. Juanpe 99. Mora F. 19. Munoz S. 26. Perez S. 1. Sanchez A. (G)
Coaches
Mohamed A.
Mejia D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', Meraz R. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Gutierrez E. ⚽,
69', Vega A. ↓, Diaz Price J. ↑,
69', Vinas F. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Llorente R. ⚽,
79', Duarte A. ↓, Juanpe ↑,
79', Llorente R. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
79', Gutierrez E. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
79', Helinho ↓, Garcia Caprizo B. A. ↑,
85', Rodriguez D. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
85', Salles-Lamonge S. ↓, Galdames B. ↑,
Preview
A clear contrast in standings as an upper-tier team meets a relegation-threatened side (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 15th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4.
Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
Toluca could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The betting markets point to Toluca as the clear and undisputed favorite.
Confirmed absences for Toluca: Lopez I.
(Knee Injury)
Ruiz M.
(Knee Injury).
Confirmed absences for Atlético San Luis: Joao Pedro Galvao
(Knee Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Toluca: Romero F.
(Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Atlético San Luis: Medina J.
(Ankle Injury)
Robson Bambu
(Muscle Injury).
In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Toluca has recorded 9 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:11 (averaging 1.9:0.8 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Toluca against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 15:8 goals (averaging 2.1:1.1 per game).
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Gonzalez H. (G) 
Simon S. 
Pereira F. 
Helinho 
Paulinho 
Salles-Lamonge S. (C) 
Rodriguez D. 
Llorente R. 
Caicedo J. 
Mora F. 
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