Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Referee: Contreras Q. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca Deportes, ViX Premium
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Toluca		Juárez

	1	X	2
	1.30	5.50	7.50	Watch
	1.36	4.80	8.00
	1.27	5.50	9.00	Watch
	1.36	5.39	8.39
	1.3	5.98	8.75	Watch
	1.34	5.25	8.30
	1.37	5.32	8.34	Watch
	1.35	5.40	7.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.43)	5.39 ↑ (4.65)	8.24 ↑ (6.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
71%

Draw
17.5%

Juárez
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

20%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.3%

19.4%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.

Juárez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Toluca - Juárez Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Toluca (1.72) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez H. (G) 184. Aceves S. 13. Luan 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 5. Romero F. 23. Virgen O. 11. Helinho 7. Guzman V. 9. Vega A. (C) 29. Diaz Price J.	1. Jurado S. (C) 33. Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 3. Murillo J. 2. Sepulveda G. 20. Aquino J. 5. Garcia D. 13. Rodrigo Dourado 10. Torres Ramirez I. J. M. 6. Monchu 11. Rodriguez J. 19. Estupinan O.
Substitutes
24. Arce F. 12. Beltran R. (G) 3. Briseno A. 4. Bruno Mendez 8. Castro N. 198. Estrada J. 20. Gallardo J. 192. Navarrete L. 15. Perez P. 16. Vinas F.	201. Carmona J. 24. Diaz B. (G) 7. Fulgencio R. 8. Guilherme Castilho 14. Lopez E. 9. Madson 4. Mayorga A. 23. Ortega H. 21. Ricardinho 16. Sigala J.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Valero S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Helinho ⚽, del Villar E. (A),
34', 2 - 0, Murillo J. (Own goal),
35', Helinho 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Vega A. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
46', Pereira F. ↓, Gallardo J. ↑,
58', Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 🟨,
65', Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. ↓, Mayorga A. ↑,
65', Monchu ↓, Guilherme Castilho ↑,
70', Helinho ↓, Vinas F. ↑,
70', Romero F. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
73', 3 - 0, Virgen O. ⚽,
74', Sepulveda G. ↓, Madson ↑,
79', 4 - 0, Vinas F. ⚽, Virgen O. (A),
81', Rodriguez J. ↓, Sigala J. ↑,
81', Estupinan O. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
81', Virgen O. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4.

Toluca is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Juárez has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Juárez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Juárez has had a series of away games.

In this match, Toluca is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Toluca: Barbosa D. (Red Card) Ruiz M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Juárez: Ayon E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Toluca: Garcia L. (Inactive) Paulinho (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Juárez: Dupuy L. (Injury) Romero B. (Knee Injury) Romero L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:22. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.6:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
18	Juarez	11	1	1	9	8:26	-18	4

Last Results with these Odds

Toluca - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 65.32%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
CONCACAF League Cup
26.08.26	Toluca - Austin FC	2:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
21.08.26	Querétaro - Toluca	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Atlante - Toluca	0:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
12.08.26	Toluca - FC Dallas	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Toluca - Los Angeles	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWTWL
- FC Juárez
Mexican Liga MX
21.08.26	Juárez - Club América	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Monterrey - Juárez	6:1 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
11.08.26	Real Salt Lake - Juárez	3:0 ✺
07.08.26	Vancouver Whitecaps - Juárez	1:3 ✺
04.08.26	Minnesota United - Juárez	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
08.03.26	Toluca - Juárez	3:1
29.11.25	Toluca - Juárez	0:0
26.11.25	Juárez - Toluca	1:2
11.08.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:2
22.02.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:4
13.07.24	Toluca - Juárez	3:2
08.03.24	Juárez - Toluca	1:1

Toluca - Juárez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide