Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	5	3.6	1.7
	4.2	3.25	1.75
	4.8	3.6	1.72
	4.78	3.6	1.73
	4.81	3.59	1.73	Watch
	4.5	3.3	1.8
	5.11	3.62	1.7
	4.8	3.6	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.75 ↓ (5.93)	3.52 ↓ (4.13)	1.73 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
19.6%

Draw
26.5%

São Paulo
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.7%

22.6%

61.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.2%

21.9%

63.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Náutico Capibaribe - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 1 - 33.3%). São Paulo (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 3. Rayan 33. Carlinhos 23. Igor Fernandes 12. Kelvin 8. Marco Antonio 18. Auremir 30. Marco Antonio 20. Patrick Allan 80. Bruno Mezenga	23. Rafael (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 13. Diaz E. 25. Alisson 8. Oscar 6. Soares C. 7. Lucas Moura 10. Luciano 17. Andre Silva
Substitutes
10. Caio Vitor 35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 39. Eduardo 16. Felipe Santana 11. Helio Borges 5. Igor Pereira 13. Indio 27. Kauan Maranhao 38. Leo (G) 17. Marcos Ytalo 1. Wellerson R. (G) 22. Wenderson	21. Bobadilla D. 43. Felipe Negrucci 93. Jandrei (G) 47. Matheus Alves 29. Pablo Maia 36. Patryck 15. Rodriguinho 22. Ruan Tressoldi 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino 18. Wendell 50. Young (G)
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Luciano ⚽, Oscar (A),
11', Marco Antonio 🟥,
21', Wellerson R. 🟨,
22', Ferraresi N. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Arnaldo ↓, Marcos Ytalo ↑,
46', Patrick Allan ↓, de Sousa Oliveira T. ↑,
53', Diaz E. 🟨,
64', Lucas Ferreira ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
64', Alisson ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
70', Kelvin ↓, Caio Vitor ↑,
75', Andre Silva ↓, Ryan Francisco ↑,
76', 0 - 2, Rodriguinho ⚽,
76', Rodriguinho 🟨,
79', Auremir ↓, Igor Pereira ↑,
81', Marco Antonio ↓, Helio Borges ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Helio Borges ⚽,
89', Soares C. ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
89', Luciano ↓, Ruan Tressoldi ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
17.05.25	Ypiranga - Náutico Capibaribe	0:4 ✺
10.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	2:0 ✺
04.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	São Paulo - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.25	CS Alagoano - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWTLL
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	São Paulo - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.25	Alianza Lima - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.25	São Paulo - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	São Paulo - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
16.10.13	São Paulo - Náutico Capibaribe	3:0
03.09.13	Náutico Capibaribe - São Paulo	0:1
18.11.12	São Paulo - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1
15.08.12	Náutico Capibaribe - São Paulo	N/A

Upcoming Matches